(Repeats MAR 11 story. No text changed.)
LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) – Investors are flocking to Europe’s energy and finance heavy stock markets, but nonetheless shares are expected to remain much heavier than in the United States, with payments appearing well below pre-pandemic levels for years to come.
European markets benefit from investors turning into established “reflation” categories and “value” plays at a cheap price, many of which are good for returning money to shareholders.
Indeed, many companies, including Standard Chartered, Barclays and Volkswagen, have recovered shares as markets stabilized and regulators reduced loopholes at the height of the outbreak. -discharged.
But divorce expectations remain low. Financial data provider IHS Markit predicts that European shares will be 10% below 2019 levels next year. But he expects U.S. payments to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.
Refinitive I / B / E / S estimates peg European shares at $ 269 billion in the next 12 months, compared to the $ 310 billion paid in the year to March 2020. Companies the U.S., meanwhile, will pay out $ 510 billion in the next 12 months. , approaching the record a year ago of $ 524 billion.
“Shares are always held in the middle,” said Grace Peters, investment strategyist at JP Morgan Private Bank.
“People are either running strong value stocks or long-term growth stocks. This is a normal early in the economic cycle … we will see more interest in shares in the latter part of the cycle. ”
Company shares to global shareholders fell more than 10% on a fundamental basis in 2020, but European shares – not counting Britain – fell a quarter, the Janus Henderson Global Loyalty Index shows.
Prices of derivatives are even more optimistic than analysts’ prices. Separation futures, which allow investors to stand by future payments, reveal European shares as far back as 2028 at 10% below pre-pandemic levels.
Some analysts dismiss futures prices as too conservative, possibly due to thin liquidity. They note that futures will see U.S. shares flat to slightly lower at normal levels even out until 2030.
“Markets tend to be very gloomy in the regional outlook. For two or three years after the 2009 financial crisis, futures meant continued cuts in shares, ”said Kiran Ganesh, head of multi-assets at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Reciting with Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Sujata Rao, additional recitation by Saikat Chatterjee. Edited by Mark Potter