(Retelling of a story published on Jan. 18 without modification. John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. It’s his own opinions)
* Chart book: tmsnrt.rs/3qx4yyE
LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) – Hedge funds boosted their bullish petroleum positions last week, targeting crude and gasoline, betting on continued yield blockbacks with OPEC + and an early resumption the domestic business activity.
But they sold moderate distillates, possibly expressing concerns about slower international border reopening and return to flights, even as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out (tmsnrt.rs/3qx4yyE).
In total, hedge funds and other cash managers bought the equivalent of 51 million barrels in the six futures contracts and petroleum options in the week to January 12.
It was the biggest wave of purchases for seven weeks and will bring the total from mid-November to 450 million barrels, records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission presentation.
Most of what was bought last week established new long bullish positions (+41 million). There were also repurchases of previously made short positions (-10 million).
Purchases were based in Brent (+25 million barrels) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+22 million) with lower purchases in U.S. gasoline (+7 million), and sales of both U.S. diesel (-1 million) and European gasoline (-2 million).
Money holds a combined position in the six contracts equivalent to 805 million barrels, up from 356 million at the beginning of November, before successful vaccination trials were announced, although they were still down from 970 million at this time. last year.
Long bullish positions are higher than short bearish ones with a ratio greater than 5: 1, up from less than 2: 1 in early November, but down from 6: 1 or even 7: 1 at this point last year.
The combined position is in the 77th percentile for every week since the beginning of 2013, while the ratio is in the 72nd percentile.
There is still some opportunity for a bullish scenario, but the short-term balance of risks is starting to move downwards.
In Brent, flat prices and especially calendar releases have plummeted since January 12, reflecting a temporary hiatus in purchases, and perhaps even a light profit, as some of the broth has been taken away. -out of the market.
Gasoline position is particularly lopsided, with shipments exceeding the nearly 10: 1 minutes, a ratio in the 84th percentile for every week since 2013.
In contrast, the position in distillates was not stretched, with ships exceeding minutes by just 2: 1, a ratio in just the 52nd percentile.
Related Columns:
– Rapid rise in oil prices share fund managers (Reuters, Jan. 11)
– Hedge funds end 2020 with lopsided oil situation (Reuters, Jan. 5)
– Oil sees more money buys, but risks moving (Reuters, Dec 7)
– Oil prospects attract fund managers (Reuters, Dec 1) (Edited by Barbara Lewis)