Road to Iran’s nuclear nuclear deal likely to be long and bumpy

No one expects it will take so long to see if they can revive the deal abandoned by former US President Donald Trump, but U.S. and European officials say that the journey will be long and heavy, if, of course, even begin the journey.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration said Thursday it was ready to send for its special ambassador, Rob Malley, to meet with Iranian officials and seek a route back to the treaty, which was agreed with Tehran and six major powers and announced the Joint Action Plan (JCPOA).

While Tehran initially sent mixed signals, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif took a hard line on Sunday, saying: “The U.S. will not be able to go back to the nuclear deal before lifting sanctions.”

The main issue of the treaty was that Iran would restrict the uranium enrichment program to make it more difficult to assemble the fine material for nuclear weapons – an ambition it has long denied – as relief from the U.S. and other economic sanctions.

In theory, it should not be difficult to decide how to revive an agreement in which the terms are defined in 110 pages of text and subscriptions.

In fact, it will be a challenge for two reasons: the scores of sanctions imposed on Trump by Iran after he walked away from the treaty in May 2018 and the steps taken by Iran, after waiting more than a year, to break the agreement in revenge.

While both sides have so far focused publicly on the question of who will move first to revive the agreement – both want the other side to do so – an official said. The US told Reuters that the “sequel” could be dropped.

“The question of who goes first … I don’t think it’s the hardest one to have,” he said.

“It explains how both sides see compliance,” the official said, citing instead what sanctions the U.S. could lift and “the question of … the measures which Iran has taken, are they all capable of retaliation? “

The JCPOA, struck by Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States, called on the United States to impose only “nuclear-related” sanctions on Iran. remove.

After withdrawing the agreement, Trump imposed scores of new sanctions on other grounds, including support for Iran’s alleged terrorism.

Experts say Biden would find it politically difficult, and perhaps impossible, to meet Tehran’s demands that these be lifted by the possible criticism of a Republican, and perhaps some of his fellow Democrats.

“This is an issue that is very politically sensitive in the US because a number of these … were deliberately committed under terrorist authorities,” said Henry Rome of the Eurasia Group.

“Both bargaining teams have to go through a very wide-ranging process to decide what will last and what will go.”

Another challenge is Iran’s support for regional agents, including those suspected of attacking U.S. forces. In the deadliest of its kind for nearly a year, a rocket attack on U.S.-led forces in northern Iraq on Monday killed a civilian contractor and injured a U.S. soldier, making it harder for Washington to reveal discounts to Iran. .

Another problem is America’s desire to free U.S. citizens detained in Iran, an issue on which Washington has begun talks with Iranian officials, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday.

And while some of the steps Tehran has taken to counter the JCPOA could go backwards – such as its uranium-rich over 3.67% and strengthening its uranium-rich uranium stock – it is others may not. These include knowledge gathered from research and development of advanced centrifuges that would help Iran enrich uranium up to a 90% weapon level if it tried.

“How do you turn away from the experience they’ve gained?” asked Robert Einhorn of the Brookings Institution think tank.

The authorities in Tehran also have a fine choice on how to deal with any change from the Biden administration as Iran prepares for a primary election in June, when turnout is likely to be high. clerical-established referendum amid growing dissatisfaction with economic hardship.

Iran’s weak economy, weakened by U.S. sanctions and the epidemic of coronavirus, has left the ruling elite with few options but to negotiate, but the decision is ultimately with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It is unclear, however, whether both sides can even return to the conciliation board.

Iran has threatened to maintain compliance with the deal further starting Tuesday, in particular by suspending some snap investigations by the DA’s nuclear watchdog.

Experts said that would certainly not miss the opportunities for negotiation, but it adds to the challenges.

“Despite everything, we are still in a precarious position, which will become more important in the coming days,” a French diplomatic source said. “It’s important to rehabilitate diplomacy quickly.”