The year 2020 has left its mark on much of the Middle East. While some developments have shed hope for seemingly irreversible conflict, other dynamics have exacerbated existing issues across the region.
A reflection on the year for Iraq and Iran was published by Al Jazeera in other pieces.
Syria
In the 10th year of the war, which not only inflicted more than 500,000 casualties but wiped out 13 million people – more than half of all Syrians – the progress of a mission has yet to be seen.
Turkey and Russia agreed on a new ceasefire at the beginning of March for the rebels’ last stronghold, Idlib.
However, President Bashar al-Assad continues to reaffirm his resolve to regain control of every inch of Syrian soil, including the northeastern areas under control. Kurdish-led administration, and Idlib.
Stopping between Moscow and Ankara nonetheless, Israel has continued to carry out armed attacks against Iran-related targets in Syria.
Contributing to the variability of the situation is the resurgence of ISIL (ISIS).
With the support of the pandemic and the desert created by the United States to withdraw its forces from some areas, the group launched several attacks and continues to regain strength just a year ago. after the collapse of its corporate caliphate in eastern Syria.
The overall situation is exacerbated by the lifting of U.S. sanctions against the Syrian government that has adversely affected the country’s economy, as well as by the 2021 Syrian primary elections, such as former Syrian Ambassador to Turkey Nidal Kabalan told Al Jazeera.
“While Syrians cannot wait to cover one of the worst years in a decade of catastrophic conflict, their main concern may be to focus economically on overcoming the impact of sanctions and politically on the upcoming major elections and relevant ramifications, “Kabalan said.
Yemen
War between government forces under President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) continued in the south, while the Houthis rebels fought the Saudi-led coalition and government forces in the north.
The Saudi-led military alliance has been fighting alongside the government since 2015 against Iran-backed Houthis.
The Houthis control the capital of Sanaa and major areas in the north and west of the country. The conflict is becoming increasingly a burden on international shipping, with the Houthis increasingly attacking Saudi oil tankers.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands of people have been killed over the past 10 years. According to the United Nations, the worst humanitarian crisis in Yemen is in decades.
Nutritionist Rahmah Watheeq receives treatment at Al-Sabeen Hospital in Sanaa, Yemen [File: Hani Mohammed/AP Photo]
However, international support has fallen sharply compared to previous years. In June, a $ 1bn international grant conference fell short of the DA ‘s $ 2.4bn target, adding to the dire situation.
At the end of December, Hadi swore in a new government formed as a result of a power-sharing treaty that Saudi Arabia broke last year.
The new government, led by Prime Minister Maeen Abdul Malik, represents the northern and southern regions of Yemen with equal numbers of members from each region. There are five members of the STC.
Libya
Foreign actors had previously dominated the conflict between the UN-recognized National Association (NNA) Government and the re-coordination of the self-proclaimed Libyan national army (LNA) Khalifa Haftar.
The Turkish-backed NGS made significant gains on a battle earlier this year against the LNA, with support from Russia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, among others.
The NGS gained full control of Tripoli after being besieged for more than a year by Haftar’s forces.
In August, NGS announced its commitment to a ceasefire and a political solution.
It has provided an opportunity for something helpful, culminating in a plan for real progress, drawn up at a meeting in September in Switzerland, and with the permission of Libyan emergency actors and members of the United Nations Support Mission. in Libya (UNSMIL).
Most importantly, both sides agreed to hold primary and parliamentary elections within 18 months, scheduled for December 24, 2021.
Nevertheless, there are obstacles, mainly due to the pandemic.
COVID-19 has shifted Europe’s focus away from Libya and given Russia an extra path, said Nicolai Due-Gundersen, a political analyst at the United Nations Training and Research Institute.
“As many EU states and the world react to COVID-19, unfortunately Libya may not be a priority. This may allow Russia to continue its intervention and support from Haftar, including through military means. “
Egypt
The government continues the fight against ISIL local connection in the Sinai peninsula, while President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has maintained a tight grip on the country.
However, he has suffered further disruption among the Egyptian population, embarking on major protests against the government in September among the journalists who opposed el- Sisi and execution.
The chairman and two employees of the Egyptian Campaign for Personal Rights were recently arrested on charges of spreading false news and endangering public order and security.
These developments have frightened the European Union. Her parliament passed a resolution urging member states to consider targeted restrictions imposed on Egypt for pressuring human rights activists.
However, the Egyptian government continued to reject any international criticism, denying it as “intervention”.
Adding fuel to the situation is the continuing inequality in the country. These could lead to new protests and more, said political analyst Hamid Chriet.
“Egyptian society is unequal in its distribution of income, with an estimated 35-40 percent of Egypt’s population earning less than the same rate of $ 2 per day, while only about 2-3 percent can be considered wealthy. “
In addition, COVID-19 may exacerbate the situation.
“The sanitation crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforces inequality. The latter may raise new and wider complaints, ”said Chriet.
Palestine
With normalization agreements signed between several Arab states and Israel, the Palestinians have become increasingly isolated. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas has promised elections.
However, a possible settlement with Hamas has not yet been developed sufficiently, and paralysis remains.
“The abandonment of the Palestinians by independent Arab governments and especially by their own incompetent leadership, are movements that have deep roots and will surely last in the new year,” said Nader Hashemi, director Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Denver, he said.
The Palestinians saw how Israel advanced its interests in the last days of the Trump administration.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds a placard showing a series of maps of historic Palestine at a speech at the parliament, in Ankara, Turkey [File: Burhan Ozbilici/AP Photo]
With the decision to put forward plans to build the Givat Hamatos settlement, previously a red line to the international community, Israel will build the first new settlement in East Jerusalem in 20 years.
It establishes a de facto separation of Palestine East Jerusalem mainly from the city of Bethlehem, making a two-state solution under the previous parameters, with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, almost unbelievable.
While U.S. President Joe Biden is an advocate of the two-state solution and has pledged to restore U.S. support to Palestinians, it is unlikely to change the status quo significantly.
“Israeli settlers will continue in the West Bank, perhaps at a slower pace as a result of the departure of Donald Trump,” Hashemi said.
Israel
While the normalization agreements have a negative impact on Palestinians, they are important for Israel in terms of economic wealth and greater security against a common Iran.
Moreover, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent less vulnerable visit to Saudi Arabia could be seen as the critical step in Israeli-Arab normalization.
As for Israel’s relationship with Palestine, “not much will change in 2021”, Hashemi said, although American support will remain substantial and equally unconditional.
“Joe Biden will return American policy to the Obama era. This means strong U.S. support for Israel and a persistent refusal to consider using American levers to force Israel to comply with international law. “
However, while Netanyahu has made the potential for major achievements on the international stage, his domestic situation still poses a problem.
The coalition between his Likud party and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party could not agree on a budget before the December 23 deadline and, as a result, the government disbanded.
Israel is now opposed to its fourth election in two years.
This is an increasingly complex situation with the establishment by New Hope party of Likud member Gideon Saar which, according to censuses, could be not only the third force strongest but potentially very shaken to the traditional Knesset majority – thus jeopardizing Netanyahu’s political future.