Research shows the effect of seasonal temperature changes on SARS-CoV-2 distribution

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused a major uproar, leading to more than 2.3 million deaths worldwide and 465,000 in the United States. Understanding the effect of seasonal temperature changes on the spread of the virus is an important factor in reducing the spread of the virus in the coming years.

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to a large family of human coronaviruses, most of which are characterized by increased spread in colder, wetter months and less spread in warmer, wetter months. With this understanding, researchers at the Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute at the University of Louisville, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, U.S. Department of Defense Arctic Comprehension Center and others argued that atmospheric temperatures would also increase affecting the release of SARS-CoV-2.

The researchers compared daily low temperature data and recorded cases of COVID-19 in 50 countries in the Northern Hemisphere between January 22 and April 6, 2020. Their research, published last week seo PLOS AON, showing how the temperature rose, the case of new cases of COVID-19 decreased.

The data analysis showed that between 30 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a 1-degree Fahrenheit increase in daily low temperature was associated with a 1% decrease in the rate of increase in COVID-19 cases, and a 1-degree decrease in temperature related. with an increase in that rate of 3.7%. By analyzing data from early in the pandemic, the results were obtained with little effect by lock-in, shelter or other social efforts to contain the virus.

Although COVID-19 is an infectious disease that has temperature-dependent independent transmission, our research shows that it may also play a seasonal role. Of course, the effect of temperature on the rate of transmission is altered by social interventions such as distance, as well as time spent indoors and other factors. A combination of these factors ultimately determines the release of COVID-19. “

Aruni Bhatnagar, Ph.D., Co-Author and Director, Brown Environme Institute

The researchers concluded that the summer months are associated with a slow release of COVID-19, as in other seasonal respiratory viruses. This seasonal effect may be useful in local planning for social interventions and the timing of virus recovery.

In the United States, sharp spikes in COVID-19 were observed over the summer, but the researchers noted that, according to the data they studied, colder summer temperatures could be has led to an even higher number of cases. The data also show that the relationship between temperature and transmission was significantly greater than the association between temperature and recovery or death from COVID-19.

“This understanding has an important impact on the temperature sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 for predicting the course of the pandemic,” said Adam Kaplin, MD, Ph.D., of Johns Hopkins, the study’s first author. “We do not know how long the currently available vaccines will continue to reap their benefits, or what risks new variables may develop over time if the Northern and Southern Hemispheres continue to COVID-19 exchange, back and forth across the equator, due to their opposite seasons, but it is reasonable to conclude that this research suggests that, like other seasonal viruses, SARS-CoV-2 can be very difficult to contain over time unless there is a co-operative and collaborative global effort to eradicate this pandemic. “