There was something symbolic in the embrace recorded on Tuesday afternoon at the airport of the city of al-Ulla in southwestern Saudi Arabia. This oasis hosted the summit of the Gulf states, a kind of small Arab league, unique to that region. From the plane, a cunning 40-year-old guy slipped in his luxurious robe. A 35-year-old brain-hot guy was waiting for him on the ground.
The announcer’s voice on the Saudi TV channel cheered, but there was no joy at the foot of the plane’s ramp. The guest is Tamim Ben Hemed, the Emir of Qatar. Leader of a country of a quarter of a million citizens, which rotates on its little finger half of the Arab League countries. The host is Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi heir to the throne, who thanks to the fortune and connections he inherited from his ancestors, is perceived as one of the most powerful leaders in the world. They had not met for several years, since one boycotted the other and shed the blood of both sides in vain. A few hours later, an agreement was signed in the conference hall to end the boycott. Three and a half years after it was announced with great fanfare, the Arab closure of Qatar has died before the eyes of the cameras. All this time the two hid their tails, which were folded between their legs and placed inside the robes.
Qatar is the immediate beneficiary of the boycott, but the sigh of relief came out of everyone’s mouths. When it launched on June 5, 2017, the boycott seemed like a determined and promising move. Saudi Arabia urgently called on the ambassador in Doha to return home and announced a severance of relations with Qatar. The United Arab Emirates acted like her, and immediately after them came Egypt and Bahrain. Then came the economic boycott. All commercial contact between Qatar and these countries was stopped, and the border crossings from Saudi Arabia to it were closed. The airspace of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was blocked from planes taking off or landing in Doha.
Qatar was driving calmly. It immediately turned to Iran and purchased from it all the produce it needed, and also opened an air route for aircraft traffic. Flights to Doha were extended, supermarkets and shops exchanging Iranian and Turkish products for neighbors’ produce, but the Qataris gritted their teeth and went on living.
The Saudis and their friends from Abu Dhabi had a variety of reasons to get off the tall tree this week. After the billions spent in a failed effort to eliminate the Shiite militia in Yemen, how much more capital can be lost in false adventures. The entreaties of the White House emissaries (encouraged by Kuwait) also did their part. Washington is a strategic partner of Doha and Riyadh. For years she has been selling them quality weapons for tens of billions of dollars. The Trump administration pressured them on the Iranian point. Come on, he told them, reconcile lest it be too late. It is not known what President-elect Biden is planning in the Iranian context, so it is better to welcome him while you are united.
And of course a lot of embarrassment. This boycott, everyone understood long ago, failed miserably. Upon its imposition, the boycotting states placed 13 demands for the bad girl that were made public. Even then it was very doubtful whether Qatar would kneel and obey them, but the arrogant list testified to the temperament of its owners more than it was intended to implement. Doha was required to close the Al Jazeera Canal, the media arm subordinate to the palace. They also demanded that it downgrade relations with Iran and cease all commercial contact with it, which violates the US boycott. They asked it to close the Turkish Air Force base in its territory, and sever its security relations with Ankara. Qatar supports the Muslim Brotherhood.
This movement, with its branches and sons, serves as a red sheet for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which see jihad as a danger to their existence. It was demanded to cease this support, and also to sever ties with Hezbollah, Al Qaeda and ISIS. Doha has indeed made a series of cosmetic changes. She said goodbye to operators in the “brothers”, reduced Al Jazeera’s coverage and tightened supervision of bank accounts with access to jihadists. But she kept the strong cards close to her chest.
Behind the scenes
Like many cases in the past, the main actor in the show was Muhammad bin Salman, but behind the curtain hid a spell. Muhammad bin Zayed, the regent of the UAE, was the mentor of his young neighbor, and he still serves as a secret man for him. The UAE has pushed for an end to the closure no less than Saudi Arabia, because it has seen the Iranian threat and financial losses merge into a threatening forceps movement, and Biden is not promising anything for now. In this boycott, Abu Dhabi recorded the largest loss of revenue of all. Its trade with Qatar exceeds $ 7 billion a year, three times the trade between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The boycott created a slowdown in the entire Gulf economy, alienated investors, and hurt the growth of the countries involved in it. All this while dealing with losses associated with falling oil prices. And think to whom the profits went. To the regional rivals, Turkey and Iran.
It was interesting to follow the commentators’ discourse in the Gulf this week. Some have expressed hope that the boycott freeze is the beginning of a healthy dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which will unite the Gulf states as in the good old days. Most of them breathed a sigh of relief because they saw this as the beginning of a halted decline. In front of everyone was the precedent of Gaza. The Palestinian camp split in two, and from that moment on, each of its wings became a faltering entity. This weakness forced Hamas and the PA to seek relief from the Egyptians, Americans, Qataris, Turks, even Israelis. They all rallied to save – and at the same time also stirred. The same is true in the Gulf. Iran, Turkey and the United States were called upon to help, and recorded handsome profits on the backs of the countries begging for help. It is no wonder why the phrase “Bay Unity” has come up again and again in the discourse on ending the boycott. Now the expectation there is that from now on all parties will tighten their relations, and in a correct and responsible dialogue they will return to serve as one hand in front of everyone else.
Until that happens, the innocent emir will continue to be innocent, and heir apparent Ben Salman will have a suspicious attitude towards him. Qatar will not be in a hurry to stop supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, jihadist organizations in Iraq and Syria, and the mini-Islamic government in Tripoli, Libya, and will maintain its relations with Turkey and Iran. To the list of losers can be added Israel, albeit in the closed, respectable place. The young emir survived an acute crisis, and came out of it with excessive self-confidence. Nothing will stop him from continuing to support radicals in the region. It is true that at the same time it also maintains contacts with Israel, and these may even intensify, for example against the background of the sale of weapons systems. But since when do relationships with these capitals come with a fiduciary agreement. The Qatari speaks to Israel for its own needs, not its own. If his interest dictates this, he will host senior Israeli officials in Doha, while at the same time continuing to encourage its enemies.
And if we mentioned relationships. Trump will retire next week, leaving behind a terribly amusing legacy. Why amusing? Because for a long time there was no president in the White House who knocked everyone out all the time. He mixed the Iranians, the Gulf states and us together, intensified the anxiety in the region – and in the meantime sold them all hundreds of billions of dollars worth of weapons systems. Although he brought coveted normalization agreements to Israel, at the same time he built new armies for the Gulf capitals with the best means of warfare in the air and on land, as they never had before. Three of them (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain) can be said to be okay, they are friends of Israel. But this is friendship for the time being, more fragile than it seems. They are certainly not true friendships. As for Qatar, even if it prepares for relations with Israel, it will never be the little Saudi Arabia of yesteryear. In a struggle for survival, supportive of extremist factions, arrogant and cunning.
The author is the commentator on Arab affairs of Gali Tzahal