Just four days before the polls open, a recent Maariv Weekend poll on the 24th Knesset elections points to a dead end that makes the current task of forming a government train almost impossible.
According to a poll conducted by the Pans Politics Institute led by Menachem Lazar, if the elections had taken place today, the Netanyahu bloc would have won 49 seats, the bloc just not Netanyahu 57 seats. The “non-identifying” right receives 10 seats in the poll, while the RAAM, which is trying to create a smokescreen regarding its intentions, receives 4 seats. According to the mandate picture, in order for Netanyahu to succeed in forming a government, he will need both Bennett’s support and the votes of Ra’am, an imaginary coalition that includes Itamar Ben-Gvir and Mansour Abbas. On the other hand, the “just not Netanyahu” bloc must attach both the common and the right in order to form a government – a scenario that also seems imaginary to all opinions.
And for the distribution of seats: Netanyahu, who himself leads the Likud campaign as in the previous elections, once again plows the country, is interviewed at almost every broadcast station and in every possible language, reaps the fruits of his labor and rises in the current poll to 30 seats compared to 27 in the previous poll. Netanyahu “drinks” two seats from New Hope and one from the right.
Yair Lapid (Photo: Knesset Spokeswoman – Yaniv Nadav)- Just before the 2021 elections: Senior members of the 2021 parties answer the difficult questions
There is a future led by Yair Lapid. Although the second largest party remains, it loses a seat and drops to 19th. The right, led by Bennett, also loses one seat compared to the previous poll and currently wins 10 seats. New Hope led by Gideon Saar continues the weakening trend and drops to a low of 8 seats, compared to 10 in the previous poll. Each of the following parties also receives 8 seats: Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas and the joint list. Torah Judaism (6) loses a mandate to Smutrich, and the religious Zionism of Smutrich and Ben Gvir is strengthened in the mandate and rises to 5. The blue and white of Bnei Gantz also rises to 5 in the mandate, just like the work led by Merav Michaeli.
In the survival battles at the bottom, Meretz and Ra’am are very close to the blocking percentage with 4 seats each. RAAM depends to a large extent on the percentage of votes on Election Day, while Meretz is in a kind of balance of terror with the Labor Party on the one hand and there is a future on the other.
72% of survey participants said they were confident they would go to the polls in the upcoming Knesset elections (and another 20% said they would probably go to the polls). These numbers can indicate a fairly high turnout, in our estimation around 70%. Voters of religious Zionism are the safest to go to the polls (88%) and close to them are Shas voters (87%). It should be noted that the relatively low rate of Torah Judaism voters – only 66% of them are sure to go to the polls, is an exception for an ultra-Orthodox party, and this is also reflected in the decrease in the number of party seats in the current poll. At the bottom of the list are the Arab parties and especially the joint list with a particularly low rate among its voters who are sure to go to the polls (49%).
It should be noted that any of the small parties that do not pass the blocking percentage can completely change the picture. For example, if one or two of the left-wing parties do not pass the blocking percentage, the Likud will probably be able to form a government with the help of Bennett’s right, which will become the king of kings. So in the real test, on Election Day on Tuesday next week, everything else can change.
Gideon Saar (Photo: Yonatan Zindel, Flash 90)The survey also examined “head to head” the degree of suitability for prime minister: Netanyahu 45% versus Saar 41%. Netanyahu 51% against Lapid 37%. Netanyahu 41% against Bennett 41%.
In a survey conducted yesterday, 1,001 members participated in Panel4All’s respondent panel to conduct research on the Internet. The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, Jews and Arabs alike. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 3.2%.