Negotiations with Iran and the revival of a two-state solution. Concerns in Israel over the Biden administration

Israel is convinced that the old agreement is so flawed and perforated that in the end – even if the process is delayed by several years – Iran will possess all the capabilities it wants, and the world will not be able to monitor it and know when it will break into the nucleus.

Senior Biden government officials are trying to allay concerns in Israel and make it clear that they will not rush back into the agreement. The designated Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, stated at a Senate hearing that the United States would consult with its allies in the region, including Israel and the Gulf states, from the outset before returning to the agreement.

Within the Biden administration there are different voices on how to get back to the nuclear deal and when. There are two dominant schools: the first holds that Trump should not have left the agreement, but once it has come out – a lever of sanctions has been created and Iran is committed to being flexible. It is therefore better not to give up this lever but to try to maximize profits and improve the deal.

The second school, led by Wendy Sherman who is destined to be Blink’s deputy, is this: We are not the ones who came out of the agreement. We disappointed our European colleagues. Iran has zero confidence in the US – rightly so – so we need to bring it back to the negotiating table and unilaterally announce that we are returning to a sort of interim agreement, and then we will try to amend it with an emphasis on sunset clauses, ballistic missiles and curbing Iran’s aggressive behavior.

Jerusalem is troubled by the fact that many of the senior officials in the Biden administration were architects and thinkers of the Obama-era nuclear deal, including Sherman, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, designated CIA chief Bill Burns, Phil Gordon and others. The nuclear deal is their baby and they continue to believe in it wholeheartedly even today, despite everything that has happened and even though Iran has openly violated it when it announced that it has begun enriching uranium to 20% – a step between it and a civilian nuclear nothing.

Roughly estimated, 80% of Biden government officials are graduates of the Obama administration or Biden’s election campaign. All of them believe with complete faith that an agreement should be reached with Iran, and that the way forward is through diplomacy alone. They do not think about a military option, even in the most extreme scenarios. They believe in the importance of restoring relations with Europe.

One of the first things Netanyahu will have to do is appoint a special envoy on his behalf to lead the talks on the Iranian issue. The leading candidate for this position is the head of the Mossad, Yossi Cohen, who is deeply acquainted with the people of Biden. Cohen is a great choice. Of all Netanyahu’s people, he is the most accepted by the Americans.

The Iranian announcement of the postponement of the presidential election from June to October 2021 expands the window of opportunity to reach a deal with them. But even a special Netanyahu emissary will not work miracles. Israel opposes a return to the current agreement. It will receive an amended agreement and will try to influence its contents.

The second issue that is expected to concern decision-makers in both countries is the Palestinian one. It is not yet clear how much the Biden administration will seek to erase Trump’s legacy in this regard. One good news is the Biden administration’s statement that it will leave the US embassy in Jerusalem and continue to recognize it as the capital of Israel. But let no one deceive himself: the Bydians will not pass over construction notices in the settlements in silence, and such declarations will bring back the condemnations from Washington that disappeared during the Trump administration.

Following the formation of the next government in Israel, its leader will have to reach a quiet understanding with the Biden administration on the issue of settlements. The United States intends to make it conditional on incitement in the textbooks and on the cessation of salary payments to the families of terrorists.

The Biden administration will also reopen the US Consulate in Jerusalem as the de facto embassy of the Palestinian Authority. In the Trump-Friedman era, the consulate became a department at the American Embassy in Jerusalem. It is also unclear where Biden’s US ambassador will live after his predecessor sold the ambassador’s home in Herzliya Pituach to billionaire Sheldon Adelson. If the Americans reopen the consulate in Jerusalem, it means they will have to look for a new residence for the ambassador.

Biden is expected to support the issue of normalization with Arab and Muslim countries – but it seems he will let the State Department address the issue. He would not be willing to pay Arab countries in American currency (arms, sanctions removal) which was very common in the Trump era, in exchange for relations with Israel. It is estimated that the term “Abrahamic Agreements” will be erased very quickly in the Biden era.

Who will be Biden’s ambassador to Israel? In the White House, the identity of the candidate is kept close to the chest. There are several options on the name exchange. The very fact that no ambassador has been appointed up to this moment indicates a lack of urgency on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. And this is also what is valued in Jerusalem: Americans have many troubles at home (Corona, economy, etc.), and they will not be in a hurry to mess with us.

In the same breath, they will also not like it if Israel takes unilateral measures that would hurt the chances of establishing a Palestinian state – which they continue to believe. But on the other hand, after Netanyahu shelved the idea of ​​annexation – it seems that it is possible to reach a constructive dialogue on the matter. The reason is that Americans also understand that the chances of a breakthrough are low at this time. But as Linken noted yesterday, it could be called a “return to life of a two-state solution.” Not in the immediate term, but as an idea. Attachment – Yuk.

Sources involved in the matter believe that Biden will learn from the mistake of Obama, who missed Israel on his first visits to the region (his first visit was to Cairo), and there is a good chance that he will arrive in Israel after the formation of the new government. That is, already this year. But another vision for the date. Jerusalem was not surprised that Biden’s first visit abroad would be to Britain, with the aim of rebuilding the transatlantic alliance.

There is also a question mark over who will be Biden’s emissaries to the Iranian issue, Syria and the peace process. The identity of the emissary will attest to future policy. There are fears in Jerusalem about these appointments. The cadre of candidates has several names that are undoubtedly problematic for Israel.

Israel will ask the Biden administration not to surprise it. The message will be: Talk to us before. Do not surprise us with either the Iranian issue or the Palestinian issue. Before you make decisions – make sure what consideration you get back. Do not give free gifts. Do not rush. At the end we know what is important to you and you need to know what is important to us. And even if there are gaps – you can find the common denominator.

Biden does not come to office with the background and charges of Obama. He takes an approach that sees Israel as an important ally, an asset to the United States. At its base, Biden loves Israel. All his people are pro-Israel, but also pro-Palestinian. A source in Jerusalem said – half humorously – that the people of Biden can be compared to peace now. Others: They are Zionists, but Smolens.