Mathematical modeling suggests that children are half as susceptible to COVID-19 as adults

A new computer study suggests that people under the age of 20 are about half as susceptible to COVID-19 infection than adults, and less likely to infect others. Itai Dattner of the University of Haifa, Israel, and colleagues present these findings in the open access journal PLOS Computing Biology.

Earlier studies have found differences in the symptoms and clinical course of COVID-19 in children compared to adults. Others have reported a lower proportion of children being diagnosed compared to older age groups. However, only a few studies have compared distribution patterns between age groups, and their conclusions are inconclusive.

To better understand child vulnerability and infectivity, Dattner and his colleagues added in-home mathematical and statistical transmission models to a dataset of COVID-19 test results from the dense city of Bnei Brak, Israel . The database covered 637 households with all members receiving a PCR test for active disease in spring 2020. Some individuals received a serology test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

By changing model parameters to match the data, the researchers found that people under 20 are 43 percent less likely to be older than 20. With 63 percent of adults having an estimated infection, children are also less likely to spread COVID-19 to others. . The researchers also found that children are more likely than adults to get a negative PCR result despite being infected.

These findings could explain reports worldwide that a lower proportion of children are diagnosed compared to adults. They could help inform mathematical modeling of COVID-19 dynamics, public health policy, and control measures. Future computer research could study the dynamics of distribution in other settings, such as nursing homes and schools.

“When we began this research, understanding the role of children in distribution was a top priority, in relation to the issue of reopening schools,” says Dattner. to work in a large, multidisciplinary team, formed by the Israeli Ministry of Health to address this issue swiftly. “

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Peer review; Simulation / modeling

In your cover use this URL to access the article which is freely available in PLOS Computing Biology: https: //magazines.plos.org /ploscompbiol /article? id =10.1371 /iris.pcbi.1008559

Citation: Dattner I, Goldberg Y, Katriel G, Yaari R, Gal N, Miron Y, et al. (2021) The role of children in COVID-19 distribution: Using household data from Bnei Brak, Israel, to estimate child vulnerability and infectivity. PLoS Comput Biol 17 (2): e1008559. https: //doi.org /10.1371 /iris.pcbi.1008559

Funding: The authors did not receive specific funding for this work.

Competing interests: The authors have stated that there are no competing interests.