Market gains are having a hard time considering the decline of the S&P 500 in 2021

Any equity market analysts conducted by MarketWatch surveyed for this report do not expect a pullback from the current levels, which have already been seen as high by more than a few market experts, since investors are entering a significant phase of the recovery from the worst pandemic in more than a century and new. presidential regime under President Joe Biden, who will take the oath of office January 20.

Despite a fearful fear that valuations and, in particular, values ​​for large capitalist technology companies, are priced for perfection, by some companies, such as Tesla Inc. TSLA,
+ 2.44%,
representing a paradigm of Wall Street worries about market bubbles, many will see rations go in just one direction next year: skyward.

Read: The stock market is rich but may be at a ‘much more reasonable rate of valuation than traditional measures suggest’

Balk analysts are of the opinion that the bull market in stock is getting tired, and instead offer estimates for the year-end 2021 gains, and in some cases plan eye rallies for the market in the next 12 months.

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas at JPMorgan Chase delivers, arguably, one of the gravity-reducing projections for the S&P 500 at 4,400, which would represent a dramatic increase, nearly 19% for the criterion index.

To put that in perspective, the S&P 500 SPX,
+ 0.35%
has already posted an almost 15% gain in 2020, the Dow Jones industry average DJIA,
+ 0.23%
led to a 6% increase in the year to date, while the technology – heavy Nasdaq Composite Index,
+ 0.26%
on track for a 43% gain in 2020. And don’t even start on the mental gains achieved by the key stock criteria from the March 23 low for the year.

And not just bulls like Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and the number of other strategists questioned by MarketWatch this year, the equity analyst community as a whole is struggling to see a world in which the S&P 500 ends lower next year.

S&P 500 Year End 2021 Auditor Targets

Inspector	Relationship	Target 2021
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas	Chase JPMorgan	4,400
Kristina Hooper	Invesco	4,350
David Kostin	Sachs Goldman	4,300
Iain Stoltzfus	Oppenheimer	4,300
Brian Belski	BMO	4,200
Cè Parker	UBS	4,100
Maneesh Deshpande	Barclays	4,000
Julian Emanuel	BTIG	4,000
Sam Stovall	CFRA	4.080
Binky Chadha	Deutsche Bank	3,950
Mike Wilson	Morgan Stanley	3,900
Darrel Cronk	Wells Fargo Investment Institute	3,900
Tobias Levkovich	Citigroup	3,800
Savita Subramanian	BofA	3,800
Barry Bannister	Stifel	3,800 (before Spring / Summer)

The mid-year price target for the S21P 500 index in 2021 is 4,027.21, according to FactSet data, as of midday Thursday, representing a climb of about 9% from the closing rate of the broad market index in the UK. -weekend shortened by holidays just over.

It is hard, perhaps, to blame the almost unbroken enthusiasm for what lies ahead in 2021 after a year murdered by a major tragedy from the COVID-19 pandemic.

In total, the U.S. has reported a total of 18,495,851 cases and 326,871 deaths, as of noon Thursday, data from Johns Hopkins University show. In addition, more than 22 million people lost their jobs at the worst stage of the disease in the U.S., bringing the economy to its knees.

Kristina Hooper, who maintains one of the more risky 2021 market forecasts, said progress with the roll-out of COVID vaccines and treatments has taken the bulls into account, and behind all purchases in the past and future is the Federal Reserve, which has pledged to keep interest rates stable at least near 0% until 2023 and continue to buy bonds and monitor U.S. federal debt .

“I expect many of the gains to occur in the first half of 2021, mitigating strong economic expansion once vaccines are widely distributed,” Hooper told MarketWatch Thursday afternoon via email. “I also expect the Fed to remain very fit, which should support risk funds, especially stocks,” she said.

CFRA’s Sam Stovall, who has a 2021 S&P 500 target, is approaching the mid-range of FactSet, offering a rather solemn assessment of the parity view at 4,080.

Stovall told MarketWatch that “hope is growing,” citing his 2021 research forecast report, and said the target is justified by the monetary policies expected from Fed and hope for more fiscal support from the government to keep the fragile economic recovery on the rails and the viral uprising on the ropes.

“As we approach the beginning of 2021, there is growing hope,” he wrote. “A new administration will be introduced early in the new year, with the possibility of unified Transport support, offering the opportunity for further fiscal stimulus, along with the promised Federal Reserve no matter what. he will, ‘”he said, referring to the now famous pledge by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in 2012 to keep the euro at the height of the eurozone debt crisis.

BTIG’s Julian Emanuel and Michael Chu say next year will represent a major “wealth redistribution” where small capitalist stocks could outperform larger quotas and add value. grown trounces each year, sculpting a one-year spying period for unvalued stocks. That dynamic is likely to bring up the overall market, the outlook of the pair.

BTIG defines it as follows:

It is worth noting, however, that analysts were not even close to the mark in their 2020 forecasts, assuming that the S&P 500 maintains its current levels through trade holiday shortening next week.

Piper Jaffray’s Craig Johnson was the closest to the current 3,700 S&P 500 range with an end-of-year target of 3,600, Chris Matthews told MarketWatch.

To be fair, pandemic is a difficult thing to predict and few, if any, would have been able to accurately measure the market ‘s response to the public health crisis by the end. March. Certainly some market participants are going out there suggesting that testing of the market low is still close, as they did here in April and here in May.

However, as Mark Hulbert’s MarketWatch column puts it, stock market projections are not “investment roadmaps,” claiming to be marketing documents for asset management companies.

A special Investment Group gives its opinion on stock market prognostications with even more candor:

“We do not need to know where the S&P will be trading twelve months from now. Wall Street’s strategic targets are always wrong in their forecasts, ”BIG writes in their 2021 forecast report.

“The whole game of strategists who deliver year-end targets every year reminds us of Charlie Brown trying to kick Football. Again and again, he tries to get it right, but every time Lucy has other plans. ”

Next week

Looking ahead, there is little on the U.S. economic calendar in the last week of 2020, which will also be shortened as much of the world observes the New Year on Friday.

Tuesday, investors will be looking for the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for October at 9 a.m. East, Wednesday we see a report on pre-trade in goods at 8:30 pm, a reading of manufacturing activity in the Chicago area at 9:45 am and waiting for home sales at 10am

Last day of the week and year ahead Thursday concludes with a report on weekly unemployed claims at 8:30 am