Let’s say you’re a new member of the SARS-CoV-2 family, with a few genetic tweaks that differentiate you from the rest of the clan. There may be changes in your spike protein that allow you to more easily attack cells, or a random mutation that will help you eliminate the viral killing effects of COVID-19 treatment.
You could be a competitor. But first, you need to get out of the body you are in and capture more people.
What would it take for you to succeed and prosper? On the other hand, what would make you die on the vine, a short-term test in a hard room of evolutionary evolution?
A modeling exercise by researchers at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle suggests that, for a genetic variant of SARS-CoV-2 to be a new threatening presence, it is not enough to be intimidating and highly susceptible. mobile. He also needs a series of lucky breaks to establish himself.
In particular, he needs to get into a super-smart event if he’s going to get a fight to put his flag in a crowd. In the short term when its carrier is at or near its maximum load, the new variant must stop a trip to a place such as a choir practice, political rally, poorly ventilated barracks, or range packed inside where people moan at close places and many others who don’t wear masks.
Once there, it needs to catch at least a few people. Five would be enough for the new version to survive to compete for more victims. A disease of 20 or more will provide a real opportunity to gain the upper hand in its new community.
The timeline is basic, the new research suggests: Even for a new version armed with superpowers, that first superspreader event must arrive within a month of arrival until the variable stands an opportunity to be established.
That’s a lot of narrow windows and a lot of high barriers, and a new variant seems to clear those obstacles quite narrowly, the researchers concluded. And that should give people some hope.
But then there is the truth: It seems that at least five new “various concerns” have overcome these forbidden ideas in about six months.
That suggests something a bit ominous: There may be a lot more such changes, each looking for its lucky break. Although it receives very few modifications, it only takes one or two with the right console of sores to spread or increase the pandemic – or to weaken the vaccines and medications that are available. could come to an end.
The team model was posted this week to MedRxiv, a site where researchers share the results of their research and seek feedback from colleagues. Therefore, its results are considered preliminary.
For researchers hoping to see around the next corner of the pandemic, modeling exercises like this are more than subtle profiteering.
The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is known to circulate regularly, but almost always in ways that do not significantly alter its behavior. So it would be good to know how these variables are born and whether there are many more like them. And if so, it would be helpful to know how the bottles can be cleaned quickly.
“Phenomenological” modeling studies like this one collect the wild scatter patterns buried in pandemic data, combine them with well-documented cases of super-spreader events, and admit an actor new who plays according to slightly different rules. They then play out what happens again and again in computer models that become digital test tubes.
One thing that researchers are increasingly convinced of is that, in patients with immune systems, the coronavirus is more likely to carry not just one but a diabetes pass. These genetic changes could make it even harder to fight the virus with drugs, aliens and vaccines.
A model like this does not produce calibrated measurements of the effectiveness with which interventions such as universal shelter can stop transmission. It does not generate predictions about the next stage of the pandemic. But it does provide insights into how a virus behaves in a number of situations, along with diagnostic estimates that may reduce the perceptions of public health officials.
“We are likely to be creating new changes in addition to those that have emerged,” said Dr. Joshua T. Schiffer, who led Fred Hutch’s model team. “And the winners will be the ones who get the vaccine or make it easier. ”
These variables do not yet have names and may not appear for months, Schiffer said. But when they wake up, they are subjected to the same difficult early life experiences.
After running through thousands of conditions, the team concluded that changes in the course of a pandemic are likely to be accompanied by changes with alarming abilities and frequent illnesses of this size. . After all, there are dozens of branches on a tree of the SARS-CoV-2 family, and each of them may have been a potential for genetic abuse. With the penal level of new changes, non-celebrities have to be born every day all over the world to see how many branches have appeared.
High referral times seem to create a “welcome” feeling for change. So when diseases go up, even a variable that is not more mobile than those that are already in circulation has a better chance of getting into the game, the modeling shows. And genetic variation that comes with a biological advantage in that sector is even more likely to succeed.
All of these newcomers are still going against good ideas. But if there are a lot of changes out there, and if careless societies allow for an early superstitious event, it is reasonable to assume that at least one or two will get enough of a base. -station to take off.
Their effect on the pathogenesis of the disease is like a genetic roll of the dice.
In the meantime, the research offers some workable advice for both experts and the general public.
The most effective way to reduce the number of new changes is to prevent “big waves of infection” from happening in the first place, the study authors write. Not only is the enhancement of the environment ideal for generating new changes, it also provides ample opportunity for a large-scale event.
And that means we all have a part to play in wearing masks, using social distance, avoiding large gatherings and taking other steps that could take away a new version of fortune. which he needs.