WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture in the 2021-22 U.S. wheat supply and demand forecasts presented to participants in the U.S.DA 2021 Agricultural Forecast Forum February 19 forecast less supply, consumption slightly lower total and smaller finishing stock compared to 2020-21.
The USDA forecast predicts 2021 wheat yields at 1,827 million bushels, just slightly higher than the 2020 yield of 1,826 million bushels, as larger harvest space corrected lower-than-expected average yields.
The area planted to wheat for harvest in 2021 was up to 45 million acres, up 651,000 acres from 2020 but less than the 2019 area at 45.5 million acres.
The USDA in its report on winter wheat seeds and Canola seeds released in January estimated that winter wheat seed area for 2021 was 32 million acres, up 5% from 2020 and the first increase in acres winter wheat since 2013.
“In contrast, spring wheat and durum plantings are expected to decrease for 2021-22 on higher expected net yield for corn and soybeans in the Northern Plains,” the USDA said.
The data included the area of spring wheat and durum plants at 13 million acres. The durum area of wheat and other wheat in the spring of 2020 was 13,934 million acres.
An area full of wheat was expected to grow by 37.2 million acres in 2021, up 0.5 million acres from 2020.
The USDA forecast wheat production in 2021 at 49.1 bushels per acre based on long-term serial movement. In 2020, the average yield was 49.7 buses per acre.
Wheat supply for 2021-22 was projected at 2,793 million buses (based on 2021 output estimate, transportation supply of 836 million buses and import projections at 130 million buses), down 181 million buses, or 6%, from 2,974 million buses in 2020-21.
Expected at 2,095 million buses, the total wheat loss in 2021-22 would be down slightly from the 2,138 million bus expected for this year.
“US domestic consumption is expected to increase (1,170 million bus versus 1,153 million in 2020-21), particularly on increased feeding and residual consumption as narrow distribution of wheat is expected to increase wheat feed in the summer , ”The USDA said.
U.S. wheat exports in 2021-22 were expected at 925 million bus, down 60 million bus from 985 million bus as projected for this year.
The USDA forecast predicted that wheat would be shipped on June 1, 2022, at 698 million buses, down 138 million buses, or 17%, from 836 million buses as the forecast for 2021. This was the lowest wheat transport since 2014.
In terms of prices, the USDA forecast concluded, “The tighter balance sheet supports the 2021-22 quarter average farm price of $ 5.50 per bu, up 50 ¢ from 2020-21. ”