‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson has revealed that London could have flock protection against the quake virus that will help life ‘get back to normal’ in the autumn.
Ferguson, who had his gloomy predictions of about 500,000 deaths in the UK that the government imposed the first lock, told the Sunday Times that it believes there will be a slowdown in infection rates. imminent and possibly recession.
He said: ‘That might help a bit because places like London have a lot of herd protection. Probably 25 percent or 30 percent of the population has now been infected in the first and second waves.
‘So that contributes to reducing the transmission.’
He also pointed out that the North West of England – another area where large numbers were captured – could be on its way to herd protection as well.
Some key government officials, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have introduced a herd protection policy – allowing the virus to spread through the population so that people can be protected from the virus.
But when the potential cost to human life was followed by the pursuit of such policing, with Ferguson claiming that as many as 500,000 people could die as a result, the government their approach.
Ferguson, who had a bleak prediction of 500,000 deaths in the UK forcing the government to implement the first lock, now says he is ‘optimistic’ about the country’s future in 2021 when vaccines are released
Like many scientists, Ferguson believes that herd immunity against Covid-19 should be achieved through the administration of vaccines to the public, and not by allowing the virus to spread.
But with the UK now one of the worst hit countries in the world in terms of number of cases, as well as now approving three vaccines for use, herd protection is getting closer , the professor thinks.
On Saturday a further 59,937 cases were reported, bringing the total number of UK cases to more than 3 million.
The number of hospital patients receiving treatment for Covid-19 exceeded 32,000 for the first time, while another 1,035 people contracted the virus – bringing the majority to 81,000.
But Ferguson says things will not get worse in the coming months, saying the UK is ‘very likely’ to hit 100,000 deaths. ‘Even hopefully it will be very difficult to avoid another 20,000 deaths,’ he said.
For the UK to achieve herd protection, a high percentage of the population needs to be vaccinated against Covid-19, although the exact number is currently unknown.
For herd immunity against measles, one of the most infectious diseases in the world, about 95 percent of the population needs to be immune, and for polio, the threshold is around 80 percent.
For measles, the last five percent are protected by the spread of the disease among vaccinated people.
Most scientists and experts believe that at least 80 per cent of the population needs to be vaccinated to herd protection against Covid-19, but Ferguson admitted ‘We don’t know what the extent to which immunity completely prevents infection – there is no natural immunity or immunity that you would get from vaccines. ‘
The professor said that now, nine months into the pandemic, scientists have a clearer picture of how long a person lives protected from the virus after being infected.
‘If you get the disease once, then at least for a year or more you will have a lot of protection against disease, a bit like a vaccine,’ he said.
Chief executive James Hutchinson will receive the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at the Center for Life Science at the International Center for Life in Newcastle upon Tyne, northeast England, on 9 January. For the UK to gain herd protection, a high percentage of the vaccine is needed against Covid-19, although the exact number is currently unknown
Sunderland key worker Russell Robson is being briefed on receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at the Center for Life Science at the International Center for Life in Newcastle upon Tyne, northeast England , on 9 January
‘You are not necessarily protected from re-arrest or surrender. You just aren’t very likely to get sick. All of these cats are all around immunity. It is true of vaccination as well as natural infection. ‘
When asked if the country’s latest lockout would help catch the virus, Ferguson said it depends on how transmitted the new Covid-19 version is.
During the first lock in March, the R level – which refers to the number of people infected with the virus – fell to 0.6. The new variable, which could have an R rating of 50 percent higher than the old changes, suggests that the lock could bring the rate down to 0.9 – lower than the target of 1.
However, Ferguson said experts are not sure the latest lockout is as difficult as the first, saying ‘it’s going to be a very close thing,’ and that the recession could be slower than in March and beyond. April.
He said if the current spike in cases had been seen earlier in the year – before the vaccines began to be introduced – the picture would be much calmer.
‘We will be able to vaccinate a large section of the population before Easter,’ he said. Even if we do not make the prime minister ‘s timeline, it is very likely that we will make these key groups by mid – March. ‘