Photos: Liron Moldovan, Oren Ben Hakon, Arik Sultan, Dudi Vaknin, Elad Malka, Danny Shem Tov and Gideon Markovich
Fifth election? This poll is the last to be published, a fact that makes the event dramatic anyway. But this time, another drama joins in when you look at the results: there is a tie – 60:60 for the two blocs, assuming that Bennett will support Netanyahu. Four days before the election, no one has any idea who will be the next prime minister of the State of Israel.
The “Israel Today” survey in collaboration with i24NEWS, conducted through a “database of minds” led by Prof. Yitzhak Katz, took place in a particularly large format with 2,087 respondents and with an unusually small statistical error of only 2.1%. The poll shows that if the election had taken place today, the Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu would have received 29 seats, followed by Yad Lapid led by 18 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc is more homogeneous and stable, but the gap between Lapid and everyone else clearly positions him as a contender for the crown, making the possibility of Naftali Bennett and Gideon Saar forming a coalition irrelevant.
According to the poll, both the right led by Bennett and New Hope led by Saar receive ten seats each. In the crispness index, Saar is slightly stronger. 59% of those who intend to vote for him are determined to vote, compared to 57% of right-wing voters who are determined to vote.
There is not much new in the ultra-Orthodox lists: Torah Judaism receives seven seats, while Shas receives nine seats. The joint list increases to ten, and Lieberman also increases – and receives eight seats.
Currently: RAAM outside
And what happens in the underground battles? Here, too, are changes that may overwhelm the results of the truth. Labor is stable above the blocking percentage with five and now Meretz, probably thanks to the Gewald campaign, is rising to five seats. At the same time, religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smutrich, is not close to the danger line and receives five seats.
The one that is currently in dangerous proximity to the red line is Blue and White led by Bnei Gantz. Common to all the small parties is the relatively high rate of confidence of their supporters: 83% of Meretz supporters are confident that they will come to vote; 74% of blue and white supporters are confident in their vote; 71% of supporters of religious Zionism and a similar number of Labor supporters are confident they will come to vote for their party. Like last week, the prime minister, Mansour Abbas, is not passing the blocking percentage. So is Yaron Zelicha’s new economic party.
Of all respondents in the survey, 12% defined themselves as undecided. The survey examined when, in the opinion of the undecided, the decision will be made as to who to choose. 40% said that in the coming days, while 36% estimated that their decision would fall only on election day itself.
Also, 73% think they will not change their mind as to which party to give their vote to until the moment they cast the ballot into the ballot box; 19% said the chances of them changing their voting method are moderate; And 8% said there was a high chance they would end up voting differently from their current intent.
Appreciation for Netanyahu
On the question of eligibility for prime minister, Netanyahu wins a 36% majority. After him Lapid gets 20%. And what about the public’s assessment of the election results regardless of how they vote? 42% believe that Netanyahu will be the next prime minister; 31% think we will go to another election; 12% believe that a government not led by Netanyahu will be formed.
Netanyahu receives the highest scores not only on the question of eligibility for prime minister, but in each of the areas that concern the Israeli public. Thus, in dealing with the corona crisis, Netanyahu receives 39% compared to Lapid, who receives 16%. On the political issue, Netanyahu with 43% and Lapid with 18%. On the security issue, 38% believe in Netanyahu, and only 12% in Lapid. Bennett, by the way, passes Lapid on this issue slightly and gets 13%. Regarding the treatment of the rift and the division among the people, 24% said that Netanyahu, while 21% said that Lapid.