Kuo: Apple car still in early stages, unlike launch to 2025-2027 at earliest

Earlier this week, Reuters Apple is reportedly aiming for 2024 to replace the long-range electric vehicle with “next-stage” battery technology, but Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the launch is unlikely to 2025-2027 at the earliest.

In a research note today, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said the specification of the Apple Car has not yet been finalized, adding that it would come as no surprise if the vehicle’s launch schedule is pushed out even later until 2028 or later:

We predicted in a previous report that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2023–2025 […] However, our latest review shows that the current Apple Car development schedule is unclear, and if development starts this year and all goes well, it will be launched in 2025– 2027 at the earliest. Given changes in the EV / self-driving market and Apple’s high-end standards, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Apple Car launch schedule is postponed until 2028 or later.

Kuo said the market is “too bullish” about Apple Car’s launch schedule, and has advised investors not to buy Apple Car-related stocks at this time.

While he doesn’t think the Apple Car has a chance of success, Kuo said there is uncertainty about Apple’s competitiveness in the EV / self-driving car market due to the company’s move end of in-depth learning / artificial intelligence:

The market has high expectations for Apple Car. However, we remind investors that while Apple has several competitive advantages, it is not always successful.
industry. For example, Apple failed to enter the smart speaker market. Demand for HomePod and HomePod mini was lower than expected, and the development of new smart talking modules was delayed. The competition in the EV / self-driving car market is faster than it is for smart speakers, so we think it is dangerous to jump to the conclusion that Apple Car will succeed.

If Apple Car is to succeed in the future, the key to success is big data / AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about Apple Car, when Apple Car launches, is that the custom self-driving car brands will have at least five years of big data collection and be helpful for deep learning / AI. How is the late Apple getting over this gap?

Reuters states that Apple ‘s self – driving vehicle will feature a unique “monocell” battery design that “frees up space inside the battery pack by eliminating battery-powered lugs and models,” could lead to a longer range of all costs.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk echoed Apple Car’s recent rumors on Twitter, saying a “monocell” battery is “electronically impossible.” Musk also said “during the darkest days” of Model 3 production, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss Apple’s ability to acquire a fraction of its current value, but Cook apparently declined the meeting.

Overall, the Apple Car still seems to be a distant reality.