Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic is ready to win an MVP battle for the ages

Whoever said NBA venues were going out of business forgot to tell Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic.

Most weird buyers like EmbBid like LeBron James for the most valuable player award 2020-21, while Jokic is not far behind on those two. Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard and James Harden are all in the mix as well.

The second half of the season weakens that pool of candidates, but Embiid and Jokic should lead the pack if they continue to perform at their historic levels to date.

Embiid currently has career levels in points (30.2), free throw attempts (11.6) and steals (1.2) per game, and shoots 52.1 percent at best in the post, 41.6 s. percent from the three-point range and 85.6 percent from the free-throw line. He scored 50 career-level points in a win over the Chicago Bulls in mid-February, and has more games with 40 points and 10 rebounds this season (five) than the rest of the NBA combined ( four).

Embiid is on track to become just the 11th player in league history averaging at least 30 points and 10 rebounds over a full season. As a Sixers digital content manager Brian Seltzer note, the 7-footer could be the first player ever to have these averages while shooting at least 50 percent overall, 40 percent from three and 85 percent from the charity stripe.

Embiid’s team success works in his favor as well. His Philadelphia 76ers lead the Eastern Conference with a 24-12 record at the All-Star break, and are 23-7 together compared to just 1-5 in games he has missed so far. .

Among players who have played at least 300 minutes this season, there is no better on / off difference than Embiid’s plus-19.4. Robert Covington, Garrett Temple and Rudy Gay are the only three players in the league within four points of his / her splits.

Advanced metrics tell a similar story. Embiid sets high career levels in PER (31.1), real firing percentage (64.6), winning shares every 48 minutes (.283) and box plus / minus (8.5), all of which are big jumps over on the best things he has done before.

Most advanced metrics paint an even stronger case for Jokic, though.

Denver Nuggets center currently leads the league in PER (31.5), winning shares every 48 minutes (.310), box plus / minus (11.6) and over-the-top player value (4.4), while Embiid is sixth in VORP and second in the other three. FiveThirtyEight is first on Embiid and Jokic is second in overall RAPTOR, but Jokic is first and Embiid is second in RAPTOR WAR.

Jokic sets new career levels in points (27.1), rebounds (11.0), assists (8.6), steals (1.6) and three points (1.6) per game while playing best position shoot at 56.7 percent, 41.8 from three points. range and 88.1 percent from the charity stripe. He scored 47 career-level points against the Utah Jazz at the end of January, just to advance with his first 50-point debut against the Sacramento Kings a week later.

That jump in scoring and efficiency came out of nowhere, as Jokic had never averaged more than 20.1 points in the game before this season. He fired no more than 33.3 percent from depth in four of his first five seasons, and had just one season shooting over 55 percent overall and one quarter over 85 percent from the top. free throw line over his first five years.

Jokic has taken another step forward as a passer this season, too. He had already established himself as perhaps the biggest passing man in NBA history, but is currently running his sixth league nationwide with a 39.9 assist percentage. He only runs Luka Doncic, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, James Harden and Chris Paul in that regard, all of whom are more traditional point guards.

Jokic already has nine triple doubles this season, just slowing Westbrook, and recently joined Wilt Chamberlain as the only standings in NBA history with 50 career doubles. Of the nine players with 50 career doubles, only Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson reached that threshold faster than him, according to ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk.

That’s not the only history that a big man has set this season.

Jokic currently has a PER of 31.54 at ninth full-time, and Embiid is not far behind at 13th. Jokic is 0.08 points ahead of Stephen Curry’s 2015-16 campaign, when he was named as the first unanimous MVP, while Embiid sits just above LeBron James ’2009-10 MVP season and 2018 MVP season. -19 at Antetokounmpo. Jokic is also 10th full-time in one-season winning divisions every 48 minutes and ninth in a plus / minus box.

While oddsmakers are currently favoring Embiid over Jokic to win this year’s MVP, the latter could put a tough cost on the board over the second half of the season.

Jokic has played in all 36 Nuggets games so far, while Embiid has already lost six of the Sixers ’30 games. If Embiid is quarantined for the first few games after an All-Star break after being exposed to a barber who tested positive for Covid-19, the lost games argument could come back to haunt him. bite at the end of the season, even if several of these absences were due to league health and safety protocols.

Arguing the success of the swing team could be in favor of Jokic as well, especially if Embiid loses more games. Although the Nuggets are only sixth in the Western Conference at 21-15, they have won five of their last six games and have their second-best record remaining, according to Positive Residual. Meanwhile, the Sixers have the ninth hardest record, and the Brooklyn Nets are only half a game behind them for the best record in the East.

If Embiid maintains its normal production while holding off the Nets and playing in most of the Sixers’ remaining games, it looks like the inside line is likely to be in. for the MVP. But Jokic could close the gap if the Nuggets file a stern accusation up the Western Conference stance over the next few months.

Similarly, NBA fans seem to be in for an uncertain MVP battle.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats through NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the glass no Basketball reference. All salary information through Spotrac.