Joe Biden ‘s foreign policy inclusion only looks more difficult as he approaches consecration day – even as the U.S. continues to crack down on the important issue of coronavirus deaths and diseases.
So far the massive and ongoing campaign of U.S. federal agencies – blaming Russia – has not received a response from Donald Trump, who has a long history of rejecting or denouncing Russian interventions.
Iran has reportedly resumed work at its Fordo nuclear site.
Then there is the strong question of which side the leadership relationship with China will take after four years of a face-to-face breach with Trump in Washington.
On top of all that bothers North Korea, which – despite Trump’s move between threats and craven courtship – now has both longrange missile capabilities as well as nuclear power, a major failure of long-term U.S. policy.
Some hangovers from the Trump era will be easier to fix – especially a quick return to the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Box. But the most difficult issues seem to be surrounded by a great deal of domestic consideration – especially if Republicans retain control of the Senate and continue in a spirit of deterrence.
Most pressing right now, however, is how they will deal with Russia if their groups are proven to be behind the latest hack.
Following the SolarWinds hack, Biden has revealed that he is considering a much more proactive response to state – backed hacking.
“We must stop and prevent our enemies from carrying out important cyber attacks in the first place,” Biden said in a statement.
“Our enemies should know that I, as president, will not stand cunningly against cyber attacks on our country.”
What is not so clear is what that means in a practical sense. One first step would be for the incoming administration to explicitly identify the blame.
“I think the incoming administration wants a list of existing options and then going to choose,” said Sarah Mendelson, a professor of public policy at Carnegie Mellon University and former is the U.S. ambassador to the UN Economic and Social Council.
Is there a defensive attack? Is there an outside attack? What level of gate do you want to make? “
In some ways, the hack – if formally placed at the feet of the Kremlin – could allow Biden not only to draw a clear line with Trump’s treatment of Putin but also to respond more muscularly. carved out what Barack Obama ruled after Russia intervened in the 2016 election.
Iran is more complex.
While Tehran has indicated it wanted to reopen talks with the U.S. over the nuclear deal, it has also pulled Washington out of a nuclear deal to rebuild its bargaining slots over stocks of nuclear materials. and reportedly doing new work.
Biden will also oppose the same lobbying from Israelis and Republicans in Congress who themselves opposed Iran ‘s original nuclear deal – and who will remain determined to weaken any new version of the treaty.
All of this raises the question of how Biden runs his foreign policy against so many challenges.
Biden’s instincts for highly regulated technocratic foreign policy are heavily geared toward long-standing democratic institutions and alliances. But as Thomas Wright, senior figure in the project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a November paper, perhaps the current call for a more aggressive approach, especially on China.
Biden has said he would sometimes fight Obama’s more cautious approach.
Perhaps the biggest question is related to this.
The loneliness and withdrawal from the world of Trump’s years built on movements that were already under his ancestor – especially Obama’s trust to engage in the Middle East in Syria. In that regard, the domestic foreign policy consensus that Biden grew up on may not be in reality.
“[Biden] He obviously has confidence in many senior Obama officials and is proud of the administration’s roster. At the same time, he opposed Obama’s warning and promotion – for example, Biden wanted to send deadly support to Ukraine, when Obama did not, ”Wright wrote.
“Biden has spoken more clearly than Obama about competition with China and Russia, and he wants a foreign policy that works for the United States. [US] middle class. “
Again, Wright sees an opportunity in policy on China if Biden chooses a tougher approach than Obama, whom he served.
“Biden should use competition with China as a bridge to the Republican Senate. Their instinct may be thwarted, especially since Trump is pressuring them not to recognize Biden’s victory as valid, but many also know that the U.S. can’t afford four years of pay a statutory lock if they are to compete with China. ”