TOKYO – Japan unveiled a plan Friday to achieve its goal of zero-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 which calls for a three-fold renewable energy share of power generation to at least 50%.
The government estimates that its “green growth strategy” will generate 190 trillion yen ($ 1.83 trillion) in economic impact that year. The roadmap lists challenges and solutions in 14 key areas, including hydrogen and offshore wind. It wants average emissions of zero from new build and home construction by 2030 and to end all sales of gasoline-only vehicles by the middle of that decade.
The expected shift from fossil fuels to electricity across the Japanese economy is expected to increase between 30% and 50% of electricity demand. This makes the confidence of energy companies in coal-fired power plants and a significant increase in the adoption of renewables a crucial step of the plan.
The focus on decarbonization is “not a barrier to growth,” Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said at a news conference Friday. Investing to meet the emissions targets will generate new economic growth, which will encourage more investment and create a virtuous circle, he said.
The government is looking to increase Japan’s offshore wind capacity to as much as 45 gigawatts by 2040 – surpassing Germany, a leader in renewable energy.
The roadmap also sets a target for the consumption of about 20 million tons of hydrogen by 2050, with thermal power plants using the clean fuel that can be seen generating 20% of Japan ‘s electricity. It will be important to bring down the cost of hydrogen, which is now several times as expensive as natural gas, to competitive levels by raising demand.
Tokyo plays up to major European economies such as Germany, the UK and Spain, which get around 40% of their energy from renewables. The 50% to 60% target is seen as the maximum Japan can achieve, given limitations such as a shortage of usable land.
Autos – including low-cost minicars – are another medium in the plan. Japan has long been a world leader in conventional cars with gasoline fuel, and it may take a long time to turn to green technology.
“I can’t see this being achieved without the innovation of cutting-edge technology,” said Akio Toyoda, chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association and president of Toyota Motor. “And we could risk losing our international competitiveness without efforts across the supply chain.”
The move could pose a problem for the industry’s large network of suppliers, especially as electric vehicles use half as many parts as those with combustion engines.
And “if autos become home appliances,” then “Japan may lose the edge” as it becomes easier for manufacturers to source parts from around the world, said Toshihiro Nagahama of Research Institute Life of Dai-ichi. “Government needs to provide support, including capital, for related businesses. “