- More than 12 billion vaccine doses have been announced by all manufacturers for release in 2021 – in case vaccine candidates succeed in clinical trials.
- The first wave of vaccines for the 92 low- to middle-income COVAX countries represents two to three times in UNICEF’s annual routine vaccination program.
- The volume of work requires heavy collective action from multinational agencies, governments and businesses.
In a year that saw a pandemic that left little impact, where efforts to spread the COVID-19 virus have had an impact on the lives and livelihoods of millions around the world, the hardest effects to say. In the worst cases, impacts on the livelihoods of the most vulnerable have led to rising poverty rates, with Oxfam reporting that up to 12,000 people a day will suffer from hunger in 2020.
Inclusive and effective circulation of vaccines is essential for life-sustaining economic regeneration. And now that the the first COVID-19 vaccine was given to a 90-year-old woman in the UK, the world is waiting for the introduction of a major vaccine program after several pharmaceutical companies announced promising vaccine test results a few weeks ago.
The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine was approved for emergency use by the UK medical regulatory authority prior to decisions with the US and Europe. Although the first wave will only take 400,000 of the highest risk group, the UK has purchased 40 million doses of the vaccine, which has recently been shown to be 95% effective after the second dose. Following approval of emergency use, the U.S. has also begun rolling out the vaccine, with deliveries reaching distribution centers this week.
As vaccine capacity increases, we are engaged in unprecedented work to ensure inclusive, safe and sustainable circulation to frontline health care workers, at-risk organizations and eventually reaching people all over the world.
The procurement planning involved pushes any previously used modeling and procurement channels to new limits. More than 12 billion vaccine doses have been announced by all manufacturers in total for release in 2021, in the best case of all test-successful candidates. In this right scenario, six to seven billion doses will be administered in the first wave of pre-prescribed vaccines, after which many countries are expected to reach the 20% minimum target at World Health Organization.
Africa and Asia (excluding India and China) are expected to be the largest importers of the vaccine.
Image: World Economic Forum
COVAX, the initiative co-led by the World Health Organization, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Consortium for Epidemic Preparation and Innovations, is working with UNICEF to coordinate the circulation of vaccines to several countries with low income.
To highlight the scale of the work, the first wave of vaccines for the 92 countries in the COVAX scheme represents two to three times in UNICEF’s annual routine vaccination program – but up to four to five times of its normal monthly streams if the vaccines are rolled out in six months.
From March this year, the The World Economic Forum’s supply and transport chain team has convened 35 key companies across the logistics and transport ecosystem, which, with support from McKinsey & Company, has been working together to identify priorities and help addressing the supply challenges of the pandemic and the circulation of the vaccines. We have identified a number of key factors that will be important in a successful distribution process.
Ten per cent to 20% of vaccines – ie, the Pfizer / BioNtech vaccine with a nominal production capacity of 1.3 billion doses in 2021 – may need ultra – cold supply chain assistance at -70 ° C, but these will applied mainly in Europe. , North America and Japan, who own or can dedicate resources to building the necessary capabilities.
While each country has its own logistical challenges, countries in the southern hemisphere need more support to successfully distribute the vaccines. The capacity of air loads will be limited by interregional loads, with an overall reduction of 20-25% is expected in the first and second quarters of 2021 (see presentation below). However, charter trips could solve this if sufficient funding is available.
Logistics capabilities vary among countries in the southern hemisphere, but are generally lower for any type of cold chain logistics than in mature economies. Particularly challenging are operations in terms of airport handling, housekeeping, dry ice facilities (to handle vaccines with deep freezing temperature requirements) and the “last mile” in rural areas.
Contractual flights could counteract the limited capacity of global air carriers if funding is available.
Image: World Economic Forum.
There is also a higher risk of it going wrong and moving requiring security solutions including serial numbers, tracking and potentially blockchain technology in southern countries. Finally, a high volume of supportive vaccine products, e.g. PPE syringes, needles and tools, which significantly exceed the size of vaccine filters in number and tonnage, will also require effective coordination and collaboration to ensure their delivery in a good time across a transport ecosystem to those places.
Given these challenges, how can the supply chain and the transportation community protect the circulation of vaccines to get us out of this pandemic?
Here are four routes for action together:
- Liaise with governments, customs authorities and NGOs to enter into public-private partnerships that ensure the rapid and safe delivery of vaccines. This means arranging pre-cleaning, airspace cleaning, documentation and training.
- Encourage the allocation of assets, where identified and where appropriate, to loosen bottles and fill potential gaps in a vaccine supply chain, that is, to secure air cargo volumes, use reefer vessels, sharing re-icing facilities and warehouse locations or consolidating last mile sizes.
- Identify non-competitive knowledge to support governments, where identified and appropriate, to advise on solutions related to the design of vaccine circulation on the ground.
- Support COVAX in its coordination role and respond to its requests for information, resources, funding or emergency calls for action.
We believe that an unprecedented magnitude of the pandemic requires innovative and bold gathering action from multinational organizations, governments and businesses to address the impacts and support a return to a new normal. With the lives and livelihoods of millions around the world dependent on our ability to harness the power of such activity – whether in the field of health delivery, product delivery or humanitarian service delivery, we must all ask ourselves, are we ready for what we do it takes? Are we ready to work inclusively to protect the lives of the most vulnerable and thereby ensure that no vulnerable country and community is left behind?