Iran is two years away from a nuclear bomb, a more explosive Lebanese sector than the Gaza Strip

The IDF’s Intelligence Division, AMN, published its annual intelligence assessment today (Tuesday). According to the National Security Agency, for the first time in years, the Lebanese sector is more explosive than the Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah is preparing for days of fighting with the IDF. In the Iranian sector, and against the background of the discourse on the subject after the election of the new US President, Joe Biden, Iran, if it decides to break out of the nuclear bomb, is within two years of producing a nuclear bomb on all its components. Four months of production of enough enriched uranium at 90%, required for the production of one nuclear bomb.

In Syria, the IMF report claims, despite Iran’s difficult economic situation, due to sanctions and the corona, the smuggling trend and attempts to establish a Shiite axis continue. In the Lebanese sector, the Armed Forces estimates, Hezbollah continues to advance the precision missile program, and in the past year there has been a disturbing trend of moderate progress in the project and an increase in the number of precision missiles held by the Lebanese terrorist organization.

In the Palestinian arena, the security forces point to a certain decrease in the potential for a confrontation with Hamas in Gaza – all of which is conditional on the continued economic improvement in the Gaza Strip – and believe that this time the chances of Palestinian Authority elections are high.

In the IDF’s Intelligence Division, we mark five very large designers who are expected to have a major impact on the Middle East in the coming years and in the coming year in particular:
1. The corona as a designer of national security that affects all components of life.
2. Economies of Middle Eastern countries in deep crisis.
3. Replacing the administration in the United States.
4. Normalization agreements as a historical change.
5. The battle that is being waged at Bambam (the battle between the wars), which according to the concept of AMN has turned from a conception in Israel into a permanent systemic basic situation.

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Despite the corona and the difficult economic situation of Israel’s enemies from Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, the intensification and building of the other side’s force and the enemy’s investment in the development of the military component were not harmed. This is what the IDF identifies, which in their intelligence assessment for the coming year claims that if in the first corona wave a moderation in the number of threats and warnings could still be seen, then the trend is straightened out and the threats directed at Israel at any given moment are no less than any other year.

Towards days of battle against Hezbollah?
For the first time in many years, the Armed Forces believe that the northern sector against Hezbollah is more explosive in the conflict than in Gaza. Although Hezbollah is not interested in the war and is deterred from it, the Armed Forces notes that the terrorist organization is developing a possibility of fighting days without the IDF. That it would lead to war.

According to the position in the Armed Forces, especially in light of the organization’s failures to avenge the death of the organization operative killed in an attack attributed to Israel in Syria, Hezbollah is trying to establish an operative concept of conducting battle days without leading to war, despite the possibility of a wider conflict.

Such a possibility is closer than in the past, and an expression of this could have developed if Hezbollah had succeeded in shooting down the UAV about two weeks ago, firing an air-to-surface missile at it.

Despite Hezbollah’s distress in Lebanon, the acute economic crisis and the harsh criticism leveled at the public is almost unprecedented in Lebanon, and the Iranians who have cut the budget, Hezbollah is nevertheless continuing to intensify. In Israel, it is estimated that Hezbollah already has several dozen accurate missiles that threaten Israel.

The National Security Agency believes that Israel’s activity in Bambam (the battle between the wars) has slowed the pace of Hezbollah’s development in this area. Still, it cannot be ignored that there has been a moderate increase in the quantity and capacity of precision missiles in Lebanon in the last six months of 2020. This is a challenge for Israel that is expected to intensify in the coming year, and may raise sharp dilemmas – whether Israel should act on Lebanese soil in the coming years. Prevent Hezbollah from continuing to intensify with strategic weapons.

Currently, in the current situation, in which Hezbollah has several dozen missiles and a not very high operational capability, the Israel Defense Forces believes that Israel’s learning rate in defensive and offensive response during an order against the threat is higher than the enemy’s armament rate. To a pre-emptive war against the intensification of Hezbollah.

The head of the Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Tamir Heiman, commented on Hezbollah’s intensification operations: “We work regularly and continuously to deal with the exact missile threat, and although it is an insurmountable threat, we provide a quality response in a variety of ways, overt and covert.”

Despite the blows: Iran has risen to its feet
The assassination of Qassem Suleimani by the Americans at the beginning of last year created a very big change, and severely damaged Iran’s operational tactical capability in the region. Up to this point in the Iranian Quds Force it is very difficult to fill the large void left behind.

The IDF points to the past year as a very difficult year for Iran. Among other things, Iran has suffered from increasing Israeli activity against Iranian targets and interests in Syria and other areas, failure to carry out revenge operations, a highly hostile American regime whose steps have led, among other things, to unprecedented lows. The Iranians sell oil barrels per day, well below its red line, along with other sanctions, an acute economic health crisis and a sharp escalation in the IAEA.

In the past year, GDP per capita in Iran has fallen to a historic low – similar only to the situation in the country during the war against Iraq. But despite everything, the UN believes that despite the difficult situation, Iran ends the year bruised, but on its feet, far from collapsing or giving up the hard line its. Expects strategic change after the change of government in the United States.

Iran’s schedule for the bomb
According to the latest IMF estimates, Iran is about two years away from a nuclear bomb, 21 months from a nuclear test, and four months for producing enough enriched pine for a nuclear bomb. If it makes a strategic decision to break into nuclear weapons, according to the IMF, such a decision has not yet been made. . Iran currently holds about 3,000 kilograms of enriched uranium to a level of 4%, and 17 kilograms of enriched uranium to a level of 20%, the production of which is considered a blatant violation of the nuclear agreement.

The production of uranium for the high level required for a nuclear bomb is done in stages, so that in order to produce the fissile material required for one nuclear bomb, 1,300 kg of four percent enriched uranium is required, for the purpose of producing 220 kg of twenty percent after enrichment. 40 kg of 90% provides the score converter required for a single nuclear bomb. But, as mentioned, uranium enrichment is just one component of the whole process. The development and production of the explosive facility, research and development required there, installation and construction of the nuclear bomb are ultimately the key component.

In this context, the elimination of the senior nuclear scientist, Muhsin Fahrizadeh, as a figure who knew how to connect the edges in project management and people management, is of great importance. Israel believes so and currently does not identify an active working group in the IDF on this issue, although the IDF Intelligence Division also takes into account that Iran may be able to hide some of its moves related to the research and development of the weapons group.

When Israel is disturbed by a return to understandings of the previous agreement with Iran, these concerns are mainly based on three reasons: another five years of restrictions on Iranian nuclear research and development; In ten years from now Iran can once again enrich uranium freely; At the immediate level, Israel fears that the lifting of sanctions on Iran will directly lead to greater financial investment in Iran’s military buildup, support for the Safed and an increase in arms shipments to the region.

As mentioned, the Armed Forces believes that Iran is not yet in a state of nuclear intrusion and is far from this situation at the decision level, but no less, also at the current level of capability in the additional components required besides enriched uranium. This figure is at the core of Israel’s defense position. An official position that the negotiations, if resumed with Iran, have no reason to maintain a position of time pressure, when Iran expects to lift sanctions and tries to convey messages as if it has nothing to lose.

The prevailing position in the defense establishment is that right now, a demonstration of American determination not to lift the sanctions may allow for better achievements in a new agreement if it is signed, with the assessment in Israel that Iran is interested in renewing the agreement.

As the prevention of a nuclear bomb by Iran, important critical paths are marked in Israel: preventing Iran from reaching the 40 kg required for the production of a nuclear bomb and preventing Iran’s ability and development to install the missile on a missile; proven and reliable operational capability, along with readiness Breaking towards nuclear weapons; Enabling intelligence and an international coalition are at the core of the ability to prevent nuclear weapons from Iran if, as stated, Iran decides to break into nuclear weapons. Very wide with the United States.

The head of the Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Heiman, commented on the division’s assessments of Iran and said: “Iran is at an unprecedented low following the actions we have taken in recent years, not only because of the corona, but has not abandoned its nuclear program and even stepped up its efforts.” “Iran sees the agreement as the only way out of the crisis and therefore at least strives to return to the agreement it signed in 2015.”

Iran continues to establish itself
Although the IDF recognizes the impact of the Air Force’s activity in Syria on the Iranian presence in the region, when it comes to arms smuggling, the IDF recognizes that the attempt to transfer quality weapons – advanced surface-to-air missiles and means of precision missiles to Syria is intensifying. Only in some cases does the IDF succeed in getting its hands on arms shipments.

Although the presence of Iranian military personnel in Syria has declined slightly in the past year, and pro-Iranian militias have retreated due to a variety of air force activities, other elements related to Iran’s establishment in Syria, such as developing foreign forces to fire rockets and missiles at Israel, continue to identify The Iranian effort The same effort is expressed in four units in this area that continue to operate and build their power in different areas of Syria.

In Iraq, and especially in Yemen, the development and strengthening of capabilities continues in everything related to unmanned aerial vehicles capable of reaching Israel in terms of range for the purpose of attack. The Armed Forces believes that the continuing trend in which Iran is deploying strategic weapons through envoys is a disturbing trend, with the number of unmanned aerial vehicles and the operational capability to operate them more significantly in Yemen than in Iraq.

Work quietly on the accuracy of the threat
The IDF recognizes that this time, the Palestinian Authority intends to carry out the elections. Reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas is not yet in sight, but Abu Mazen is working in an attempt to connect the arenas.

In the Gaza Strip, Hamas maintains calm and curbs terror, when at this stage the logic of regulation for them is the only logic. On the other hand, the IDF is very concerned about the power building, the intensification of Hamas and arms smuggling into the Gaza Strip, while the intelligence department points to an increase in the quality of the military threat from the Gaza Strip. It is estimated that Hamas, based on local production capabilities, is trying to achieve greater accuracy. The explosive at the head of the battle, and in an attempt to develop capabilities that will disrupt or bypass the defensive capabilities of the Iron Dome system.

The relative calm in the Gaza Strip, on the other hand, which of course allows for a routine for southern residents, means that the Air Force attacks far fewer targets in Gaza. In the reality of Gaza, Hamas is busy building its military force. In the coming year, the Gaza Strip will continue to be a source of instability in the region, but the security forces believe that there is a certain decrease in the level of tension over the past years due to Hamas operations on the ground to maintain calm, along with relative moderation by Islamic Jihad. Baha’u Abu al ‘Atta.

Disruption of the settlement path and a more difficult economic situation could once again lead to dynamics of escalation or a resurgence of the GAP against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The resumption of terrorism and rocket fire at Israel could change this trend and intensify tensions, with relative calm in recent months.