Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi warned in a speech last week that lifting heavy economic sanctions on Iran would give him a breathing space that he would only use for further nuclear development.
He reiterated Israel’s long-standing position that only prolonged economic pressure can cause the Islamic Republic to bounce back and return to the negotiating table with the US, where it will regret and accept a long-standing deal. better for Jerusalem’s interests.
An Iranian walks past an anti-American wall on the wall of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran
(Photo: EPA)
There is no doubt that Iran is in the midst of a real economic crisis. The Trump administration’s strategy “overwhelmed it”, despite not sending Tehran back to talks.
This crisis was not exacerbated by the pandemic of coronavirus and the severity of Iran’s economy.
But despite these obstacles, the Islamic Republic has been slow to accept and control the sanctions.
A salesman counts money in Tajrish Bazaar, Tehran
(Photo: Reuters / West Asian News Agency)
For the first time in 2019, Iran’s exports of non-petrol-related industries exceeded its earnings from fuel exports.
This trend is not due to a sharp decline in fuel exports as a result of the sanctions, but from an increase in general exports and various reproductions of local production.
For example, products imported from abroad are now domestically produced, supporting the local economy.
In addition, Iran is also looking at exports to regional markets such as Iraq and Afghanistan.
All of this cannot make up for the loss of trade with Europe or the abandonment of trade with China, but it will allow the Iranian economy to continue.
The last few weeks have seen some very positive developments for Iran’s economy.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announces the discovery of a new oil field at a speech in Tehran in 2019
(Photo: Reuters)
According to the latest international estimates, fuel exports from Iran grew to 600,000–700,000 barrels per day.
This increase may reflect a growing presence of Chinese support with Iran’s efforts to circumvent the sanctions.
According to the IMF, Iran’s economy fell by only 1.5% in 2020, and is expected to grow by 1.5-3.2% in 2021.
Iran’s currency, the government, has also shown some recovery, ranging from 300,000 US dollars to 228,000-234,000.
Further economic upturn could occur if the U.S. approves an IMF loan or reopens European credit lines for Iran as a move to advance relations ahead of any renewed negotiations on the nuclear deal.
Even if restrictions are not lifted soon, Biden ‘s administration will be much stricter with the sanctions than before.
US Secretary of State John Kerry will then meet with Iranian colleague Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015
(Photo: Reuters)
Meanwhile Iran’s Director General Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is acutely aware of the country’s still difficult economic situation, holding to his position that lifting sanctions is not the solution, but rather neutralizing through an “opposing economy,” that is, reducing Iran’s dependence. has promoted oil and domestic products.
This does not mean that the country’s leadership would go against some strategic compromises – and indeed it has previously shown openness to concessions.
However, there is hope that Iran ‘s poor economic situation will come down and force the country to resign without hope.
Raz Zimmt is an Iranian expert and researcher at the Institute of National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University