But diseases began to fall in September, and now the country reports about 11,000 new cases per day, compared to a peak of nearly 100,000, leaving experts worried.
They have proposed many explanations for the sudden fall – which can be seen in almost every area – suggesting that some areas of the country may or may not have reached herd protection. of preexisting protection of Indians from the virus.
The Indian government has also contributed to the decline in cases to mask wear, which is publicly mandatory in India and breaches carry huge taxes in some cities. But experts have noticed that the situation is further complicated by the fact that the decline is similar although mask compliance is evident in some areas.
It’s more than just an interesting puzzle; Determining the cause of the infectious disease could help authorities control the virus in the country, which has reported nearly 11 million cases and more than 155,000 deaths. Approximately 2.4 million people have died worldwide.
“If we don’t know the cause, you may be unaware of doing things that could cause mitigation,” said Dr. Shahid Jameel, who studies viruses at Ashoka University in the India.
India, like other countries, misses many diseases, and there are questions about how it counts virus death. But pressure on the nation’s hospitals has also plummeted in recent weeks, another sign that the spread of the virus is slowing. When cases exceeded 9 million in November, official figures showed that nearly 90% of air-conditioned emergency care beds in New Delhi were full. On Thursday, 16% of those beds were there.
Vaccines cannot be attributed to that success since India only started providing sights in January – but as more people get vaccinated, the outlook should look even better, although experts are also concerned about changes identified in many countries that appear to be more contagious. and provide some treatments and vaccines so effectively.
Possible explanations for the fall in cases include that some large areas have reached herd immunity – the threshold at which many people are immune to the virus, by falling ill. or getting vaccinated, the transmission will start to slow down, said Vineeta Bal, who studies immune systems at the National Institute of Psychology of India.
But experts have warned that even though herd protection in some areas is partly dependent on the downturn, the population as a whole remains vulnerable – and must continue to adapt. care.
This is especially true because new research suggests that people who become ill with one type of the infectious virus may relapse with a new strain. Bal, for example, cited a recent study in Manaus, Brazil, which estimated that more than 75% of people there had antibodies to the virus in October – before things resurfaced in the January.
“I don’t think anyone has the last answer,” she said.
And, in India, the data is not so dramatic. Nationwide screening for antibodies by Indian health organizations estimated that about 270 million, or one in five Indians, had been infected with the virus before the vaccine began – well below that level. 70% or higher that experts say may be thresholds for the coronavirus, though even that is uncertain.
“The message is that a large proportion of the population remains vulnerable,” said Dr. Balram Bhargava, who heads India’s leading medical research agency, the Medical Examination Council of India.
But the study provided another perspective on why Indian diseases may be declining. It showed that more people were infected in Indian cities than in small towns, and that the virus was moving more slowly through rural areas.
“Rural areas have lower population densities, people work in larger open spaces and homes are much cooler,” said Dr. K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Indian Institute of Public Health.
If some urban areas are moving closer to herd protection – no matter where that threshold is – and also restricting transmission through mask and physical distance and thus seeing things fall, it is likely the low speed at which the virus passes through rural India may help to explain. declining numbers, Reddy suggested.
Another possibility is that many Indians are susceptible to a number of diseases throughout their lives – cholera, typhoid and tuberculosis, for example, are common – and this exposure can cause the body to stimulation to produce a stronger immune response to new viruses.
“If the COVID virus can be controlled in the nose and throat, before it reaches the lungs, it will not be as bad. Indigenous immunity works at this level, by trying to reduce the viral infection and stop it getting to the lungs, ”said Jameel, from Ashoka University.
Despite the good news in India, the rise of new changes has added another challenge to efforts here and around the world to bring the pandemic under control. Scientists have identified several changes in India, including some that have been blamed for causing new diseases in people who already had an earlier version of the virus. But they are still studying the impact of public health.
Experts are speculating whether changes could lead to an increase in cases in the southern state of Kerala, which previously had a plan to deal with the virus. Kerala now makes up nearly half of India’s routine COVID-19 cases. Government-funded research has suggested that a more infectious version of the virus may be at play, and efforts to classify its genome are ongoing.
With the reasons behind India’s success unclear, experts are worried that people will drop the guard. Large parts of India have already returned to normal life. In many cities, markets are booming, roads are crowded and restaurants are almost full.
“With the numbers declining, I feel the worst of COVID is over,” said MB Ravikumar, an architect who was admitted to hospital last year and recovered. “And we can all sigh with relief.”
Probably not yet, said Jishnu Das, a health economist at Georgetown University who advises the West Bengal state on treating the pandemic.
“We don’t know if this will come back after three or four months,” he said.
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