Oil prices are expected to be sensitive in the near future to the degree of compliance of my members OPEC+ Production quotas, in which there may be deviations as high oil prices increase the viability of some of the group’s deviations with an emphasis on Iraq, as well as the group’s decision at a meeting expected in early April where the group will discuss production quotas in May.
On the global supply side it should be noted that oil production in non-OPEC + countries is expected to shrink transiently by about 800,000 barrels per day during the months of April-May, due to the expectation of maintenance works by oil producers which will lead to a partial and temporary cessation of oil production. Most of the decline in oil production is expected to be in the oil sands project in Canada, in the sea rigs in Norway as well as those owned by the UK.
India’s demand: India’s dependence on oil imports has risen in recent years and according to India’s oil minister, the country imported during April 2020 to January 2021, which are the first ten months of the budget year ending in March, about 89.4% of the oil it processed at refineries. India, the third largest oil importer in the world, is trying to diversify its oil sources, particularly against the background of production quotas affecting the amount of oil supplied to India. India plans to encourage domestic oil production in order to reduce its dependence on oil imports from other countries.
In terms of forward-looking, In the opinion of theEIA, Oil production of OPEC Will not return to the level of 2019 before 2023 while the production of countries that are not members of the group OPEC Is expected to return to the pre-crisis level over the next year and even rise to a higher level, alongside rising demand which is expected to return as well and reach pre-crisis level in 2022.