In light of Iranian provocations: Saudi Arabia may perceive the CIA report as abandonment

The CIA report released yesterday (Friday) estimated that Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman approved the abduction or assassination of journalist Jamal Hashukaji at the Istanbul consulate about two years ago. This is a document whose details have already been widely reported by the media, On circumstantial evidence.

For example, the report bases its assessment on the prince’s control over the decision-making process, the direct involvement of his adviser Saud al-Qahtani and members of the royal security establishment, and his support for the use of violent means to silence opponents of government abroad.

It seems that the Biden administration could have contented itself with declaratory condemnation to please the Democratic Party’s Tehran wing (Tehrani, until it reaches Iran of course), but Secretary of State Anthony Blinken poured another bucket of murky water over the heads of the Saudis. In a statement, Blinkan announced a “Hashukaji order” that would allow the government to restrict visas to individuals who acted on behalf of a foreign government and were involved in activities against opponents of the government, including repression, harassment, surveillance, threats or harm to journalists, Their work.

The real blow was reflected in the fact that the order, which would also include family members, would be applied immediately to 76 Saudi individuals, who were estimated to be involved in threatening opponents of overseas government, including publicist Jamal Hashukaji. Following this, the finance department in the administration will impose sanctions on former Saudi intelligence official Ahmad Hassan Muhammad al-Asiri, security guards of Ben Salman, the Saudi elite unit called the “Tiger Squad” and other elements. When asked why no sanctions were imposed on the Saudi prince, Blinken said the United States did not want to completely sever ties but only “recalibrate them.”

Anyone who has been following the Saudi arena and its relations with the United States since Biden came to power may get a different impression that Washington is once again turning its back on a key ally. All in the name of the idea that it should be a beacon of liberal values ​​for the whole world. But it is highly doubtful that there is a more liberal alternative in Riyadh than Ben Salman. it’s all relative.

Both.  Abandoning Saudi Arabia?  // Photo: Reuters

Still, the Biden administration has not contented itself with removing the Houthi militia from the list of terrorist organizations, announcing its intention to end support for the Saudi coalition in the war in Yemen, and its desire to return to nuclear agreements with Tehran. It is now also imposing sanctions on Saudi officials.

The insult in Riyadh seems more difficult in light of recent efforts to appease the Biden administration. Political activity, the most prominent of which is Lujine al-Hadalul, has been released from prison, and the government has announced its intention to pass a series of legal reforms. In addition, Saudi Arabia has made sweeping concessions in reconciliation with Qatar and lifting the siege on it, without the demands made more than three years ago being met at all.

At the same time, Iran has intensified its provocations against the kingdom. The Houthis from Yemen have stepped up attacks by UAVs and hit a passenger plane at Abha airport in southern Saudi Arabia. Last month, things peaked in action from the Iraqi border region. -Iranian, flew towards Riyadh and crashed in the palace complex in the capital. In the shadow of these things, the insult may be perceived as a real abandonment, but Riyadh does not give up.

Saudi Arabia, however, completely rejected the statement, which was described as false and unacceptable. Saudi Arabia has also rejected any order that would affect its leadership, sovereignty and independence of its judiciary. And in other words, the kingdom has rejected sanctions on senior officials following the assassination of Hashukaji. According to the Foreign Ministry in Riyadh, the report includes inaccurate details and conclusions. Saudi Arabia even reiterated its dissociation from a “group of individuals” who acted in violation of all regulations and authorities.

Iranian President Rouhani near centrifuges.  Reopening the Plutonium Track // Photo: IPIA

However, the Saudi Foreign Ministry did not slam the door completely and stressed that the partnership between Saudi Arabia and countries is a strong and lasting partnership. “This partnership has prospered for nearly eight decades and is based on mutual respect. Institutions in both countries have worked hard to deepen ties in all aspects to strengthen security and stability in the region and the world,” an official statement said.

At the end of the Trump era, it was written here about the Saudi prince’s dilemma when it comes to normalization with Israel. On the one hand, the window of opportunity was closing, while the move was opposed by the conservative wing of the royal house, and especially by King Salman, who adhered to the Arab peace initiative. On the other hand it was not clear what Ben Salman could gain in the Biden administration, that he could not earn in the Trump administration.

In light of the stalemate in Israeli-Palestinian contacts, the Arab initiative still seems irrelevant. In Israel, a coalition led by the left is not expected to be formed in the upcoming elections. The Palestinians, too, seem to be retreating from warming relations, even in the shadow of the corona crisis. The elections to the Legislative Council, which are expected to take place on May 22, could end in a victory for Hamas, with the terrorist organization gaining a foothold in the Palestinian Authority.

Against this background, it seems that Muhammad bin Salman missed the train of normalization. The risk of opposition from the conservative wing remains the same, the chances of obtaining sponsorship of a political process between Jerusalem and Ramallah are close to zero, and what could have been gained by the Trump administration has already fallen off the table.

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