IHS Markit predicts “wild” journey for global PV industry in 2021 – US pv magazine

The company expects 158 GW of new PV to be installed worldwide in 2021, jumping over 2020, and the U.S. and China will still have control.

From pv magazine-global

IHS Markit said it plans to install 158 GW of new PV worldwide next year. That would represent a 34% increase over the expected 2020 figure, and analysts expect a “wild ride” for the PV industry in 2021.

The company expects 2020 plants to come in at around 118 GW, a decline of 5% compared to 2019. Although IHS Markit reduced the forecast earlier in the year based on the expectation of a disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, he said. the main reason for the reduction in installation figures.

“As many PV markets began to recover in the middle of the year following localized locks, model pricing developers started to push developers,” said IHS Markit analyst Josefin Berg iris pv. “Developers and EPCs without a firm deadline in the fourth quarter, who had not received modules and / or were unwilling to pay a price, had to delay procurement and complete projects until 2021.”

This delay in the completion of projects, coupled with increased worldwide demand for renewables, has been cited as the main driver for the expected increase in centers next year. An analysis by IHS Markit finds that polysilicon prices rose 60% between June and September, followed by price increases in glass and other materials that forced model manufacturers to renegotiate contracts and raise their prices.

The company expects prices to remain high in the first half of next year, before forecasting supply chain conditions and allowing them to fall from the middle of the year. “As soon as prices start to fall, buyers who have been waiting to get models will run,” Berg says. “We can’t say 2021 will be a big round.”

Global distribution

China and the United States are expected to remain in control, with both representing more than half of global centers. But more than that, a wider range of countries is expected to contribute larger numbers. “The other eight markets in the top 10 will contribute up to just a quarter of global demand, compared to 40% in 2019,” Berg said. He said parallel “consolidation and disruption” working with China and the United States strengthens their positions even as a growing number of smaller markets make up the growing demand. left over.

Among the top 10 regions, India is expected to regain its position as the third largest PV market – although it could be hampered if high prices hold into the second half. Australia should overtake Japan for fourth place, while Spain is expected to stay ahead of Germany as Europe’s largest PV market. At the same time, analysts note that Colombia, Peru, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Zambia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia should all deserve their attention. next year.

“Expected model price declines in the second half of 2021 will create supply shortages, but the exact supply and demand dynamics of the year have not yet been identified,” said Berg. “But we know the PV industry can surprise us all.”

* This article was edited from the original for the US pv magazine site by David Wagman.

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