If no one breaks a word

Almost without us noticing, some of the political statements of the key players in the election campaign from the last few days could roll Israel out with a high probability for election number five.

On Netanyahu’s side, the game is clear – if Bennett can complement his 61 coalition MKs, he will do so, at one price or another. Bennett does not deny. According to most recent polls, Netanyahu is scratching the 61 seats (with Bennett) from below.

If Netanyahu does not have 61, the complication will begin in the form of the following game: Lapid, according to all polls, the second largest party, said he does not deny the formation of a government through the votes of Arab MKs. Lapid’s theoretical government is supposed to have members Significantly, they announced that they would refuse to take part in a government to be formed with the help of the votes of the Arab MKs.

Moreover: the Torch government will have to rotate to get up. Bennett has already announced that he will not agree to a rotation with Lapid (even if Lapid is second). In fact, Lapid has no chance of forming a government.

Regarding Bennett – Lieberman said that his chances of becoming Singapore’s prime minister are greater than his chances of becoming Israeli prime minister (as a joke on the title given by the right-wing chairman to his economic plan). Beyond that, in practice, when Bennett denies Lapid and when Lieberman denies Bennett – even a government led by Bennett (even in rotation) becomes almost impossible.

Another option remains, an assault government. Although the new chairman of Tikva is the party leader who enjoys the most room for maneuver (since no player in the political system disqualifies him), he currently moves around 12 seats in polls. Without increasing the number of seats, Saar will not have a government to replace Netanyahu.

Bennett, by the way, also ruled out a meeting with Meretz, and Saar said he would not be able to sit with Meretz if she held the positions of Nitzan Horowitz (“there is room for an investigation against Israel in The Hague”) – statements that further complicate the situation. In the middle are the ultra-Orthodox, of course, who have sworn allegiance to Netanyahu, another nail that prevents flexibility in forming a coalition.

The bottom line, assuming all the players keep their word, is a political dead end that will lead Israel to the continuation of government chaos – and almost certainly to the No. 5 election in about two years.