How do Israeli election results affect relations with Biden?

by

WASHINGTON – Israel should not expect the Biden administration to delay the resumption of U.S. talks with Iran until Israel has a new government, despite its fourth unopposed election, according to scholar Dan Arbell- residency at the Center for Israel Studies at the University of America.

“I believe the Biden administration would be careful not to look like it was obstructing the Israeli elections,” Arbell, a 25-year veteran of the Israeli Foreign Service, told the Jerusalem Post. “And while the Middle East is not a priority for Biden, he will not wait for time-sensitive issues such as Iran, even if that means moving forward with the diplomatic talks while he is in Israel is an interim government and election campaign. “

If the current elections hold up, with no sides maintaining a clear majority with 61 seats, the country could be headed for the fifth round of elections from 2019. If so, the State Department “willing to engage in talks with Iran,” as Secretary Antony Blinken said several times, while the U.S. and E3 countries discuss how they will return to the JCPOA.

Blinken promised several times to consult with allies in the region, including Israel, “at the takeoff, not at the entrance.” And while both countries are having an open channel of discussion through the National Security Council, the administration’s desire for both Iran and the U.S. to return to comply with the agreement could be as soon as possible at the hands of the National Security Council. one time to the fifth election.

Another area of ​​interest to both countries is the ICC probe. Last week, Israel received a letter from International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda formally informing the country of the opening of a full war crimes investigation and giving it 30 days to respond.

Earlier this month, Blinken said the U.S. is “strongly opposed and deeply disappointed by this decision.”

“The ICC has no authority over this issue,” Blinken said. “We have serious concerns about the ICC’s efforts to exercise its sovereignty over Israeli workers,” he said.

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at FDD (Foundation for the Defense of Democracy), told the post that Israel is entering another round of elections, coordinating with the United States on international affairs. nationals like the ICC tend to remain strong, as both sides are convinced.

“The current trend seems to be holding on,” he continued. “Netanyahu will be the leader of Israel, even if his order is not as good as his. In that capacity, we are likely to see it built on issues related to Iran ‘s nuclear diplomacy and the relaxation of sanctions. “

He went on to say that the Palestinians are likely to be a package with a marginal focus.

“But with that, the Palestinian elections have been slated for May. Neither Washington nor Jerusalem has taken steps to exacerbate the potential impact of Hamas or other terrorists planning to run, ”said Schanzer. “These must be done soon, as the tragic lessons of the 2006 Hamas election could be repeated.”

Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Policy at Brookings, told the Post that “with the Palestinian elections also approaching, and also elections from Iran, the legacy for the Biden administration is: Click now on policy issues that the administration cares about and risks overcoming electoral barriers in other countries, or plowing ahead anyway. ”

“At some point, the U.S. needs to work on their own agenda, regardless of the dynamics of the interior of others,” he said.

“We should not underestimate the impact on foreign policy,” Sachs continued. “The real threat is the ongoing domestic damage, which is huge – but Israel’s foreign policy is not free from the farce of its domestic politics.”

Source