Hezbollah is trying to drag Israel into the mistakes it made with Hamas – this is how it can be prevented

What are those fighting days? The reference here is to the rounds – familiar to you?

These rounds of 72-24 hours include reciprocal fire blows, in which the enemy is known to target the communities and civilians, while the IDF responds to the sources of fire, while trying to charge the fighters and infrastructure on the side of the organization working against us.

These rounds have a well-known strategic term and that is the war of attrition. This is how the terrorist organizations are actually trying to act against us, that is, to drag us into years upon rounds in which there is no decision and each side intensifies and intensifies, and once every few months it exercises its power against the other side. As soon as one of the parties feels exhausted, he seeks a ceasefire mediated by international factors, and then after a recognized “ping pong”, an agreement is reached that is violated within months – and God forbid.

This reality, which has existed in the Gaza Strip for many years, is extremely bad. It is useless and it mainly exhausts the citizens. The IDF must be prepared for any scenario, but at the strategic level it must be clear to everyone that the reality of the rounds, or the war of attrition – will not be acceptable to the State of Israel in a northern scenario. We must not copy the mistakes we made in the south.

There are two main reasons for this – first, the power that Hezbollah, the Iranian envoy, is able to wield is dozens of times more significant than the organizations in Gaza – and the damage to civilians and infrastructure accordingly. Second, Hezbollah and its allies in Syria operate out of sovereign states. Therefore, the direct responsibility for any terrorist operation across the border rests with the leadership in Syria and Lebanon – there is a clear address to these provocations.

Here, too, there is a common shortage among many military commentators – Hezbollah, and certainly the Shiite militias trying to establish themselves in Syria, will not fire a single bullet at us without a direct directive from the Ayatollahs regime in Iran, hence any provocation in the north must lead to tough action against the sovereign – Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Israel must set a clear, sharp and achievable price tag: we will not accept war days, and if you try to take us there, the price you will pay will be huge. This message must be conveyed, as mentioned, to the “triangle” – Syria, Lebanon and Iran.

At the political level, this message must go to Russian President Vladimir Putin. We know that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a sympathetic ear in the Kremlin, and that ear needs to hear clear statements: Israel will act vigorously against Iranian provocations, even if it means a regional upheaval that will undermine the stability that Putin has bothered so much to bring. A sovereign state like Israel, with military power, must put a clear and declared price tag here.

And yet there is a difficulty – we also need backup. Acting alone is a threat that can be realized, but it is not as effective as a threat that also has the backing of a powerful force – and here America has an important role to play. The dynamics of recent months show a worrying trend in this regard – one can get the impression that the Iranians these days are enjoying an embarrassing American “courtship”. They understand this well, and it is understandable that in Tehran they do not always answer calls coming from Washington. The situation in this context is sensitive, and is entirely in the hands of the Iranians.

Do not be surprised by the reality after the Trump era – this dynamic was completely predictable, and Israel must maintain the strategic fit for it. But in the end, in matters of war and security, in everything related to the tank commander, the commander of the infantry department, the fighter pilots and the commanders of the ships, the IDF directive must be clear: provocation must be responded to very strongly and immediately, “ready to go. We were already in a movie where the IDF is rolling its eyes at the political echelon.

The political echelon must guide the IDF: there will be no days of war – there will be war, and you must be prepared for all that is implied.

Paradoxically, it is precisely the powerful and immediate readiness of the IDF under such a message that will prevent the provocation – in Iran and Lebanon they have already learned that an unnecessary border incident could bring them a response they do not take into account. They have learned. They understood. We must not confuse them.

The writer is a former commander of an armored brigade, currently a military-social relations researcher