Many seasonal viral diseases are in nature, including the influenza virus, which appears every winter. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and public health officials suggested that SARS-CoV-2 may behave like other endemic coronaviruses, peaking in autumn and in seasons. winter.
However, there was a lack of scientific evidence for this claim, especially at the global level. This question inspired researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign to work to fill this unique knowledge gap.
Taking into account all the odds of influenza infection, the team examined whether COVID-19 infection is seasonal. They assumed that COVID-19 epilepsy and genetic production have an effect. For example, they said high temperatures and humidity would adversely affect viral transmission, as well as the resulting causes and mortality rates.
Does temperature and location affect COVID-19 infection?
First, the researchers loaded relevant epidemiological data (disease frequency, mortality, recovery cases, functional cases, test rate, and hospitalization) from 221 countries, along with latitude, longitude, and the average temperature. They used Pearson correlation analyzes to test whether temperature and geographic location were associated with population frequency, mortality, patient survival, functional issues, and test rate data in each country.
“One conclusion is that the disease could be seasonal, like the flu. This is very relevant to what we should expect from now on after the first control of the vaccine. waves of COVID-19, “lead author Gustavo Caetano-Anollés, PhD, a professor in the department of crop sciences, affiliated with the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology in Illinois, said in a statement.
“Indeed, our global epidemiological analysis showed a statistically significant correlation between temperature and frequency, mortality, recovery issues, and functional issues,” Caetano-Anollés noted. “The same bias was found with latitude, but not with longitude, as we expected.”
Do viral mutations affect COVID-19 infection?
The team also wanted to establish a link between temperature setting effects and genomic modifications of SARS-CoV-2 to determine whether temperature-related epidemiological effects are controlled by the virus during exposure. interact with the guest. For this analysis, genomic modification, and genomic modification per unit time were measured from alignment of 55, 453 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences to determine whether there was a statistically significant correlation with temperature and co the geographical features of the various countries. Collection and transfer rates were measured for the entire genome and for specific regions known for important pathways of mutational change.
Variable changes were based on results from a parallel study of 15,342 virus genome sequences that showed novel pathways of mutational change in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis predicted mutational migration from spike and reproduction of proteins to other regions of the proteome, including the nucleocapsid protein and the viroporin 3a protein. A lack of significant correlation indicates that mutation changes in virus genomic production appear to be unrelated to temperature changes of COVID-19 disease.
“Our findings suggest that the virus changes at its own pace, and that mutations are influenced by factors other than temperature or latitude,” Caetano-Anollés said. “We don’t know what those factors are, but we can now say that seasonal effects are independent of the genetic formation of the virus.”
COVID-19 host and seasonal immune system
The researchers noted that the host immune system may be partly dependent on seasonal pattern. Although unconfirmed, some studies suggest that high environmental temperatures, host nutritional status, and vitamin D levels play a critical role in the regulation of altered immune responses following respiratory viral infection, such as occurs with influenza. The researchers suggest that the interaction of the environment and the epidemiological data of SARS-CoV-2 may merit further study.
“We know that the flu is seasonal, and that we can rest during the summer. That will allow us to get the flu vaccine for the following fall,” Caetano-Anollés explained. “When we are still in the midst of a pandemic, that breakdown is not there. Perhaps learning how to stimulate our immune system could help fight the disease as we struggle to survive. catching up with the ever-changing virus. “
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