Strategic Adviser Israel Bachar, who has worked with blue-and-white chairman Bnei Gantz in the last three election campaigns, spoke this morning (Friday) with Nissim Mash’al about the questions currently on the agenda ahead of the upcoming elections. Bachar, whose name made headlines when he said things about his former employer, He spoke on 103FM, and also mentioned Netanyahu and “the most important man at the moment in the political system,” by his definition – Naftali Bennett.
Yariv Levin closes the 23rd Knesset (Photo: Knesset Channel)
According to a Maariv survey, Blue and White crashes and does not pass the blocking percentage, what do you think?
“On a personal level as the one who initiated the establishment of Blue and White at the time against the opinions of all advisers and politicians, for me on a personal level it hurts to see. Electorally I saw it already a few months ago they will get there, unfortunately you can not lose your natural base and go against sentiment “At the end of the day, the public says its.”
The writing was on the wall?
“Yes, it was on the wall from August, from the moment the whole political system realized there would be no rotation and began months of dragging in the process of ‘yes budget-no budget’, ‘yes rotation-no rotation’. It’s a discourse the public does not like and it was clear it would move “.
Benny Ganz, with how good a man he is, did not fit into the political system.
“A person’s right to run, at the end of the day, is right or wrong is what the public decides, and the public will decide who is right and who is not, or who they want and who they are not. The public decides and no one else.”
Where will his seats go?
“It’s not where they’ll go, they’re already gone. That’s why they get 2.6 percent who do not pass the blocking percentage. 11 seats of blue and white. For blue and white unlike Herzog who brought 24 seats she managed to produce a right wing of 11 seats and therefore reached 35 in the first campaign and “33 in the third campaign. The same 11 seats of blue and white migrated to Gideon Saar, the vast majority of them. Gideon holds around 11 seats of the center-right inclined, who voted blue and white, and there is another seat that is with Naftali. The rest of the votes went with Yair Lapid.”
What did you learn about Netanyahu’s political situation?
“Electorally, Netanyahu is in an excellent position compared to everyone else, he is the big party by a large margin. Politically Netanyahu’s situation is complex. The most important person at the moment in the political system is Naftali Bennett. If he makes the decision not to go with Netanyahu after the election, Netanyahu has nothing. “A chance to form a government in any way. This is the most important decision that will be made in the political system.”
Naftali holds the most important card in the game?
“Unequivocal”.
What will Bennett do?
“Without Naftali, Netanyahu will not have a government. It does not matter how many seats he receives, Netanyahu needs each of Naftali’s seats to reach 61. What is interesting is that they are electoral tools, once Netanyahu rises there is a chance that Bennett will fall, and Gideon also has seats. “Four Likud seats are parked with Gideon, who are currently staying with Gideon, and I estimate that Netanyahu will try to take them back to him and there will be a very big battle.”
Do you think Bennett will go with Netanyahu?
“I do not know. I am not in talks with Bennett on this matter. Naftali Bennett will have a difficult decision.”
Even if Bennett’s right joins Netanyahu, he is in the 57-seat area. He has no 61.
“At the moment he does not have the 61st so he will have to lie about a few things. We need to see the turnout, the audiences and keep an eye on what will happen in the Arab sector. It is too early to know if he will have 61 or not, it will be a difficult task. The top strategic goal is blue Laban was constantly preventing Netanyahu from the 61st. “
He does not have 61 according to any recent poll and you say he can?
“I do not say this because I am not currently running his or another campaign, but I say that there could be an electoral situation, once Gideon has 4 seats from the Likud, if Netanyahu returns two and a half seats from Gideon to the Likud the picture changes, 59 seats in Netanyahu’s bloc. It’s very fragile. Four seats are parked with Gideon, three Likud seats are parked with Naftali. If he fails to take from Gideon he is in a problematic situation and it will be difficult for him to reach 61.
Gideon Saar is this new blue and white?
“Kind of, kind of. There is currently internal cannibalism within the center-left, it will be difficult for it to grow any more, the entry of Huldai and other small parties. It is not very easy to make seats from the right to another party. One of Netanyahu’s successes over the years has been forming the bloc. “This is not easy. Gideon currently has four seats, but his task is to keep them.”
Is the Netanyahu era over?
“I would not make such a statement, he is on the pitch very strongly, I would not eulogize him – not at all. The question is how they will run the campaigns and what the public will want.”
What about Ron Huldai?
“The good thing he did is that he branded himself clearly on what is yes and what is not. He has a clear identity from the first speech. Will he be able to move to high double-digit numbers? I doubt it.”