The advent of Covid-19 vaccines promises a return to a more normal life – and it has created a global market worth tens of billions of dollars in annual sales for some pharmaceutical companies.
Top winners will include Moderna and Pfizer – two different U.S. pharma companies that each raise more than $ 30 per person to protect their two-dose vaccine. Although Moderna was founded just 11 years ago, it never made a profit and employed just 830 pre-pandemic workers, Pfizer traces its roots back to 1849, it made a net profit of $ 9.6bn last year and employs nearly 80,000 people.
But other drug dealers, such as British-Swedish AstraZeneca and US pharma Johnson & Johnson, have pledged to provide their vaccines on a nonprofit basis until the pandemic ends.
Whether the market remains a cash spinner in the future depends on whether the vaccines come as the kind that require just one look – like measles – or whether it will be needed. regular vaccines, such as for the flu. But in the future, there is a huge financial return available.
Here, we take a look at who fits the biggest benefits – and who the shareholders have already made a fortune with.
Pfizer / BioNTech mRNA vaccine
Comirnaty Pfizer A vaccine, developed by Germany ‘s BioNTech, is based on regenerated messenger RNA – the molecule that transmits genetic guidance from DNA to a cellular protein-making machine. This was the first to be approved and must be stored at ultra-low temperatures (-70C). Governments have ordered about 780m shots, including the US (200m doses for $ 3.9bn) and the EU commission (300m), while 40m doses will go to lower-income countries through a facility Covax. It costs $ 39 (£ 28) for two doses in the US and around $ 30 in the EU.
Expected sales in 2021: $ 15bn- $ 30bn
Pfizer, which circulates costs and profit margins equivalent to BioNTech, expects $ 15bn in 2021 sales based on conventional contracts. The latter figure could be twice as high, as Pfizer says it can deliver 2bn doses this year. Barclays analyst Carter Gould predicts sales of $ 21.5bn in 2021, $ 8.6bn next year and $ 1.95bn in 2023, with the assumption that the injection has been given passed as a one-time picture.
Allowance prices change over the last 12 months
Pfizer: + 1.8%
BioNTech: + 156%
The two founders of BioNTech, the husband and wife team of Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci – both doctors – became multi-millionaires last year, when vaccination capacity and the agreement with Pfizer boosted shares .
Moderna mRNA vaccine
The vaccine made by the U.S.-based biotechnology company, Massachusetts, must be stored at freezer temperatures (-20C). The UK has ordered 17m doses, the EU bought 310m with an option for another 150m in 2022, while the US government ordered 300m hits. Japan bought 50m shots. Moderna costs $ 30 for the two missing photos in the US and $ 36 in the EU.
Expected sales in 2021: $ 18bn- $ 20bn
Moderna has said it expects 2021 sales of $ 18.4bn. Barclays analyst Gena Wang predicts sales of $ 19.6bn, $ 12.2bn in 2022, and $ 11.4bn in 2023, accepting the recycling vaccine.
Share price change over the last 12 months
+ 372%
A group of investors who supported the company when it was founded in 2010 will have made a big profit. 9% of the shares of Stéphane Bancel, a 48-year-old French executive, are now worth nearly $ 5bn.
Johnson & Johnson Adenovirus vaccine
J&J injection, the world’s first single-sided Covid-19 vaccine, was developed by its Janssen division in Belgium. It uses adenovirus-26, a rare version of a cold virus. It was approved in the US in late February and can be stored at normal fridge temperatures for at least three months. Major orders include the US, UK (30m doses plus option for 22m), EU (up to 400m doses), and Covax countries (500m doses through 2022).
Expected sales in 2021: up to $ 10bn
The company aims to deliver at least 1bn doses this year, generating $ 10bn. The US government has ordered 100m doses, with the option to purchase an additional 200m, and is paying $ 10 for a bullet.
Share price change over the last 12 months
+ 7.7%
AstraZeneca Adenovirus vector vaccine
The vaccine developed by Oxford University uses modified cold chimpanzee virus and can be kept at fridge temperature. Viral vector vaccines use harmless viruses to deliver a piece of genetic code to cells. Large orders have come in from the UK (100m), the EU (up to 400m), the US (300m) and Japan (£ 120m).
Expected sales in 2021: $ 2bn- $ 3bn
Analysts at SVB Leerink predict sales of $ 1.9bn this year and $ 3bn in 2022. The 2021 figure could be much higher if AstraZeneca meets its ambitious target of 3bn doses . The company has promised to provide the vaccine on a nonprofit basis during this pandemic, and will cost $ 4.30 to $ 10 for two doses.
Allowance prices have changed in the last 12 months
-8.6%
Sinovac Inactivated virus vaccine
CoronaVac injection has been given for emergency use in several Chinese cities since last summer, and was approved by the Chinese regulator in early February. Beijing-based Sinovac has struck contracts with Brazil, Chile, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines. In January, Turkey and Indonesia began their vaccination campaigns with the jab. Sinovac also plans to give 10va vaccine doses to Covax countries.
Expected sales in 2021: billions of dollars, but unclear
Sinovac says it can deliver more than 1bn doses this year. The vaccine is priced at $ 60 for two photographs in some Chinese cities. Sinovac’s Indonesian partner Bio Farma, which has ordered at least 40m doses, said it would cost $ 27.20 for two doses locally.
Allowance prices have changed in the last 12 months
-21.6%
Gamaleya Institute / Russian Direct Investment Fund Adenovirus vaccine
Although not yet agreed with the EU regulator, Hungary and Slovakia have purchased the Russian Sputnik V. vaccine, in total, more than 50 countries, Iran, Algeria and Mexico, have ordered it. AstraZeneca is testing a two-dimensional combination of its vaccine with Sputnik.
Expected sales in 2021: obscure but possibly billions
Developers are struggling to mass-produce Sputnik in Russia, but RDIF, a sovereign wealth fund, told the Financial Times last month that it had signed contracts with 15 manufacturers. in 10 countries to complete 1.4bn jobs. The developers have said they would charge $ 20 or less for the two internationally required doses but are giving it away for free in Russia.
Novavax Next-generation protein vaccine
The Novavax vaccine uses a small fragment of a laboratory version of the Sars-CoV-2 spike protein. The US company is hoping for regulatory approval in the UK, US and other countries in the first half. The company has been researching vaccines for more than 30 years and injection has never been licensed. They have agreed to deliver 300m doses to date, covering the UK (60m doses), EU, Canada and Australia. It hopes to deliver 150m doses per month and is expected to be cheaper than competitors. According to the Financial Times, the company has agreed to cut $ 3 in Africa. The vaccine is also given in Stockton-on-Tees, in the north-east of England, and can be kept at fridge temperatures.
Expected sales in 2021: ‘several billion dollars”
Based on those deals, Novavax said this week that it sees “the potential for several billion dollars in revenue in the next 12 months”. This is expected to rise, as Novavax is expected to be able to produce 2bn doses a year by mid-2021, thanks to a partnership with the Serum Institute of India.
Share price change in the last 12 months
+ 1,128%
The biggest financial benefits go to fund managers such as Vanguard and BlackRock, which are the largest shareholders.
CureVac mRNA vaccine
CureVac expects to publish end-of-term results for the CVnCov vaccine in April and hopes to get EU approval by June. The EU has pre-ordered 225m doses with the option to purchase another 180m. Unlike other mRNA vaccines, CureVac bullets can be stored at refrigerator temperatures. Together with GSK, which owns nearly 10% of the German company, they are trying to develop next-generation prospects for several Covid-19 variants that appear in one vaccine.
Expected sales in 2021: unclear – prices not yet published, but at a profitable price
Nasdaq’s registered biotechnology aims to deliver up to 300m doses this year and 600m to 1bn in 2022. CureVac says its injection requires a less active ingredient than its competitors but he insists he cannot afford his price because investors expect a return.
Change in share prices
+ 45.5%
The largest shareholder is German billionaire Dietmar Hopp, co-founder of software company SAP. It owns more than 80% of CureVac, now worth more than $ 12bn.