A first-of-its-kind study conducted at the bottom of the Dead Sea reveals that a devastating earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale is expected to hit our region in the coming years. According to the study, an earthquake of this magnitude occurs in the Land of Israel with an average cycle of between 130 and 150 years, but there have been cases in history where the gap between one earthquake and another was only a few decades.
The last earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 on the Richter scale was felt in the Dead Sea Valley in 1927, when hundreds of people were injured in Amman, Jerusalem, Bethlehem and even Jaffa. Now, following the findings of the study, researchers are warning that another earthquake could most likely happen in our lifetime, in the coming years or decades.
The study was led by an international team of researchers, with the participation of Prof. Shmuel Marco, Head of the Porter School of Environmental and Earth Sciences at Tel Aviv University, and his fellow researchers from the School of Environmental and Earth Sciences: Dr. Yin Lu, Prof. Amotz Agnon, D. R. Nicholas Waldman, Dr. Nadav Wetzler and Dr. Glenn Biasi. The results of the groundbreaking study were published in the prestigious journal Science Advances.
As part of the study, the research team enlisted the help of an international organization called ICDP, which conducts deep drilling in lakes around the world, with the aim of studying the Earth’s ancient climate and other changes that have taken place in the environment. In 2010, the rig was placed in the center of the Dead Sea and began drilling at the bottom, to a depth of hundreds of meters, allowing an analysis of some 220,000 years of Dead Sea geology – the longest record of its kind in the world.
Seasons in layers
According to Prof. Marco, because the Dead Sea is the lowest place on earth, every winter, the flood waters that flow into the Dead Sea carry with them alluvium, which accumulates at the bottom of the lake into different layers. A dark layer about a millimeter that represents the winter drift and a light layer that is about a millimeter that represents the increased evaporation of water during the summer, with each such two layers representing a different year.
At the same time, as soon as there is an earthquake, the precipitation swirls, the layers that have previously sunk in perfect arrangement mix and re-sink in a different way. Using physical equations and calculated models that the researchers developed specifically for this study, they were able to reconstruct from the geological record the history of earthquakes over the period.
An analysis of the findings shows that the prevalence of earthquakes in the Dead Sea Valley is not fixed in time. There were periods of thousands of years with more tectonic activity and thousands of years with less tectonic activity. In addition, researchers found that there was a significant underestimation of the frequency of earthquakes in Israel.
If until now researchers thought that the Dead Sea Rift shook at an intensity of 7.5 on the Richter scale every 10,000 years on average – now it turns out that the deadly earthquakes are much more frequent, with an average cycle ranging from 1,300 to 1,400 years. Researchers estimate that the last earthquake of this magnitude struck us in 1,033 – that is, almost a thousand years ago. This means that in the next few centuries another earthquake of magnitude 7.5 and above is expected.
In contrast, the researchers found that earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 occur in our area on average every 130 to 150 years, but the frequency between the earthquakes varies, and while there were cases where the differences between one earthquake were hundreds of years, there were also cases where powerful earthquakes Only a few decades apart.
“I do not want to scare,” concludes Prof. Marco, “but we are living in a tectonic active period. The geological record is not lying, and a major earthquake in Israel will come. Of course, we have no way of predicting exactly when the earth will tremble under our feet – this is a statistical forecast – But unfortunately I do know that an earthquake that will cause hundreds of casualties will hit in the coming years, it could be in ten years or decades, but it can also next week and we must prepare for that.