The last time Daniil Medvedev reached the Grand Slam final was unexpected. Yes, the 25-year-old was in good shape leading up to the 2019 U.S. Open final – losing just two of his previous 22 games. And he was the World No 5 at the time. But from the ATP’s next-grander group NextGen, Medvedev was not the first to expect to reach the first final of a Grand Slam. And he was not expected to intimidate Rafael Nadal at Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York, where the Russian lost a high out of the fifth set.
On Sunday, in the men’s singles final of the Australian Open, at the Rod Laver Arena, Medvedev will advance to his second major final. But he is no longer an unexpected opponent of a throne held by the Big 3 – Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Nadal. Just by reaching the final, he is expected to get past Dominic Thiem ‘s World No 3 spot. If he wins the final, he can get to a World No. 2 spot that has not been won by anyone outside the Big 3 and Andy Murray for over a decade.
This time around, he seems to be the only man capable of managing to climb without losing Djokovic in the final at Melbourne – the 33-year-old has not lost any of the last eight finals in Australia.
Rise of Medvedev
Since the 2017 season, the ATP has advertised widely about a talented new generation of tennis players. The governing body even organized a new calendar event – the NextGen Finals (a mirror of the tour finals, but for the top players aged 21 and under).
This generation was led by the likes of Alexander Zverev (the world champion No 7 who went on to win the 2018 Grand Slam), Hyeon Chung (who defeated Djokovic in the fourth round of the 2018 Australian Open), Tsitsipas (Tour 2019 Winner of the finals and World No 6, whose back-up and elegant one-handed talent brings back memories of Stefan Edberg and Pete Sampras, and also Federer). Russia also had a big name in this mix: Karen Khachanov, who defeated Djokovic in the 2018 Paris Masters final.
Medvedev, the oldest of the lottery (now 25), was never considered among the big names in this realm of future greats. He stands at the same height as Zverev and Khachanov – a 6-foot-6 threat – but his frame was lanky (surprisingly he likes to eat ‘sweets’) and his slippery shoulders made it impossible see it reach where it is today.
Born in Moscow, the 6-foot-6 Russian has been training in France since he was a teenager. For years he lay out of mind, receiving attention only when he controversially tossed coins in the direction of a chair umpire (suggesting that the officer had been bribed by the opponent) , or when he was disqualified from the Challenger incident after being questioned about a party umpire based on his race.
So when it broke into the top 20 for the first time in October 2018, it wasn’t really noticed.
And then in the summer of 2019, after the Wimbledon Tournaments, he began the unexpected run of 22 games leading up to the U.S. Open final.
Turns out, it wasn’t that Medvedev didn’t have the talent to do it in the highest levels of tennis. It was just late to the party.
The non-powerful blows
A fan tweeted on a short video of a rally between Medvedev and Zverev during the ATP Cup, a week before the Australian Open. The caption marked the small hop the Russian made every time he hit the upper hand.
Typically, a coach would ask a student to move the back hip forward after playing handball. Medvedev does that too, but of course it adds a little ‘hop.’
He responded to the tweet saying: “You should see my volleys.”
Medvedev’s playing action is something that coaches would not recommend. It is not a textbook. The backing up of his ground beats is fast and smooth, but it doesn’t take much time to load it into a picture. The track of the racket swing is also not the up and down movement for topspin. Instead he drives through the picture, playing powerful horizontal strokes off both wings.
With his powerful service, he kicks the ball twice (basically) and then just throws the ball up without taking that quick moment to get the ball into the bucket.
Nonetheless, the baseliner, despite its tired frame, packs a powerful punch. The forehands and backhands down the line or crosshairs are crisp and straight. He moves impressively for someone up and running down shots willingly, bringing them back with depth, speed and unexpected entry. He plays drop drops, slices, moonballs (lobs when the opponent is at baseline), to change the speed and disturb rhythm, and then blows flat out to make a point. to kill. And the angles he gets across the court are incredible.
One particular point stands out from the game against Tsitsipas. Medvedev is stretched to the right after Greek service. Tsitsipas comes up to the net to play the return deep into Medvedev’s backhand. In flame, the Russian reached the spot and, as he ran, played a backhand down the winner of the line to break service for the last time in his 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 win .
It was his 20th trophy trophy, and the 12th time since November that he has beaten top 10 opponents. In fact, Federer is the only major player he hasn’t hit in this run – who is undergoing knee surgery.
“It’s a pity Roger isn’t playing,” he said after his game. “I’d like to play it.”
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The effectiveness of Djokovic’s textbook
While Medvedev’s style is neutral, his opponent on Sunday is perfect as a textbook.
Djokovic has one of the best backups in the game. And the strokes of the defensive baseliner are so sure and fast that it can turn a defense into an attack in one shot.
He is also one of the best players to see the game, and preferred to use long rallies to break down a dog opponent – evidence of Djokovic ‘s stamina.
The fast courts in Melbourne have backed his service, perhaps the weakest picture. In his second game against Frances Tiafoe, Djokovic put down 26 aces – the personal best for one game.