Will the rate of vaccines against the corona virus in Israel stop the need for further closures in the future? Eran Segal, Professor of Computational Biology in the Department of Computer Science at the Weizmann Institute of Science, has been dealing with this question in recent days.
In a series of tweets he posted on Twitter, in Hebrew and English, Prof. Segal discusses the rate of immunization in the country and the ability of vaccines, statistically speaking, to influence the spread of the corona virus. He said that due to the fact that Israel is currently under closure and since about half of those aged 60 and over have already been vaccinated, the turning point could occur in a week or two.
The Ministry of Health wants to tighten and extend the closure. vindicated?
On the one hand: 5,000 are verified per day, 700 are seriously ill in the hospital, and there is no exact closure
On the other hand: vaccines, and the rate of increase according to hospitalizations is lower than the rate of increase according to the verified
We examined a scenario in which the closure would be lifted in a week. We ignored the British mutation that a simplified mother changes the picture
>>> pic.twitter.com/Gf6GnCjeop
– Eran Segal (@segal_eran) January 2, 2021
“The Ministry of Health wants to tighten and extend the closure,” he wrote. On the one hand – 5,000 are verified per day, 700 patients are seriously ill in hospitals, and there is no exact closure. On the other hand, vaccines and the rate of increase according to hospitalizations are lower than the rate of increase according to those verified. ”
In the following tweet, Prof. Segal detailed that he examined a scenario in which the closure would be lifted in a week. “We assumed that the third closure was less effective than the second, and the coefficient of infection dropped to only 0.9, which stores 150,000 a day, 30,000 at the weekend, that the vaccine is effective after a week, 95% in preventing serious illness, 65% in preventing infection, and 80% in each age group. We will be vaccinated, “Segal wrote.” We also assumed that there would be a slowdown in mid-January due to a lack of vaccines and / or the practice of administering the second dose. Although the closure is less effective, the model predicts that even if we remove it in a week, the peak of the epidemic will be in a week or two and from there a decline will begin. This is because the effect of a vaccine at such a rapid rate is large and twofold, once in reducing the disease and a second time in lowering the coefficient of infection. “
The expert added: “We received a peak in severe patients of about 750 in the coming week, and a verified record of about 7,000 people. The model also predicts that extending the closure in its current format for another two weeks has very little effect.”
Netanyahu with the millionth vaccinated: “A tight closure is needed until the vaccines take effect” // Photo: GPO
Prof. Segal later withdrew his remarks because of the possibility that the infectious British mutation would spread in the country. “The star on the whole operation is the British mutation, and it all depends on how common it is already here,” said Prof. Segal. “In the race between it and the vaccine, if the mutation is common it greatly changes the picture, because its rate of spread will exceed the rate of vaccines and we will have to do everything so that it does not spread.”
Prof. Segal’s reference to the subject could not be accepted until the date of publication of the article. It should be emphasized, as Prof. Segal also wrote, that it is not known to what extent the British mutation has already spread in the country, and that there is a difference between a mathematical calculation as accurate as reality may be, in which there may be twists and turns.