BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese exports grew strongly in December but at a slower pace than the previous month, as demand from trading partners hit a cooling coronavirus blow, while in trade remains stable, a Reuters poll showed Monday.
Exports rose 15% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast in a Reuters poll of 25 economists, cooling from a 21.1% jump in November.
A vibrant export helped drive a dramatic reversal in China’s manufacturing sector last year, which helped the country’s economic recovery from the coronavirus recession in early 2020.
“We believe that the recovery in global growth in previous months has continued to support export growth, but demand for consumer goods may be higher ahead of the free-to-consumer period. days declined in December, which could be a slight slowdown for export growth in December, ”Goldman told Sachs economists in a note.
Analysts also said export growth was coming from a high base at this time last year, possibly with pressure on the headcount.
The forecast came in line with lower growth in new export orders in manufacturing surveys in December.
Imports rose 5% in December compared to a year ago, the census showed, still at a moderate pace but slightly higher than 4.5% in the previous month.
Import growth seemed to be aided by improved construction demand due to continued stimulus, and favorable commodity prices, analysts said.
China’s trade surplus is expected to decline slightly to $ 72.35 billion in December from $ 75.40 billion in November, according to the election. The data will be released on Thursday.
Chinese exports saw strong performance in the second half of last year, helped by strong demand for Chinese goods and coronavirus-related outbreaks to produce in other countries. China managed to get the virus under control with tight locks last year after its first outbreak in late 2019 and early 2020.
Some worry that a recent rally in the local currency could push export profits and reduce overseas orders.
The yuan landed 6.7% in 2020 – the first annual rise in three years. Yuan’s appreciation since May has led to heavy losses for some exporters, China’s foreign exchange regulator said last month in a survey of foreign trade companies in eastern Shandong district.
But UBS economist Tao Wang expects Chinese exports to grow a strong 10% in 2021, up from around 3% in 2020, as the global economy recovers with the help of multiple vaccines.
Reciting with Lusha Zhang and Ryan Woo; Edited by Ana Nicolaci da Costa