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As U.S. coronavirus cases begin to stabilize, and COVID-19 vaccines increase nationwide, the world’s largest economy will soon gain more insight into the arm. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the $ 1.9 trillion American Rescue Act, passed by the House of Representatives on March 10, Friday.
“The most important part is getting Americans back to work,” Georgetown University Professor of Finance Rohan Williamson told S&P Global Market Intelligence. “And for them to get back to work, you have to take care of COVID.”
The large incentive package provides direct support to small businesses, municipal governments, and individual taxpayers. The $ 1,400 payments for those earning less than $ 75,000 a year, or $ 150,000 for couples, are likely to encourage e-commerce spending, benefiting big-name retailers like Amazon, Walmart, Target, and Best Buy, as consumers begin to feel more confident about the current state of emergency.
“They may be willing to go out and eat, travel, buy a new Apple Watch,” said Katie Thomas, who manages the think tank inside the Kearney Consumer Institute at management consulting firm Kearney, to S&P Global Market Intelligence. “You’re starting to see the upticks again in clothing and beauty as people get excited to get up and go out again. “
The recovery may be felt in the second half of this year and appears to have delayed a previous physical rupture. Last month, 34 companies filed for bankruptcy protection, down from 46 in January and well below the 2020 one-month peak of 70 in June. In total, 80 companies have gone bankrupt this year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
“There is no need to fire to pull the plug and install a break,” Joseph Malfitano, founder and managing member of M&A consulting firm Malfitano Partners, told S&P Global Market Intelligence. “For a lot of retailers, they can wait and see what this kind of reopening looks like and see if they get a big kick.”
The challenge remains in the job market. While 379,000 jobs were created in February, the U.S. labor market is 9.5 million jobs behind its pre-pandemic peak. S&P Global Economics estimates that the current labor market is 11.7 million lower than the pre-release 12-month trend, and the unemployment rate is closer to 9 million. % than the main figure 6.2%.
“While we may have turned a corner, the U.S. is still facing a difficult road to get past, with many people left on the side of the road,” said US Chief Economist S&P Beth Ann Bovino in this week’s report. “We do not expect a significant change in policy in the short term, as employment shortages from the pre-COVID-19 peak remain substantial.”
Today Thursday, March 11, 2021, and here is essential information today.
The future of credit
Global Debt Movement: Crisis near unlikely term, even as more deficits come
S&P Global Ratings estimates that global debt has exceeded $ 201 trillion by the end of 2020, equivalent to 267% of GDP. But the near-term debt crisis appears to be the result of the ongoing recovery of the global economy.
– Get the full report from S&P Global Ratings
Credit trends: The U.S. distress ratio is down nearly 90% since March
The U.S. distress ratio fell for the 11th consecutive month, hitting 4.0% as of February 22, 2021 – the lowest level in nearly 10 years – from 4.3% as of January 29. -mixed U.S. compression in general and for distributors labeled ‘CCC’ and below.
– Get the full report from S&P Global Ratings
Baseline risk for U.S. hospitals to fall from 2020 onwards despite challenging challenges
Baseline numbers for U.S. hospitals and other sectors of the healthcare industry have fallen from their 2020 peaks in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, although labor cost and cash flow issues continue to challenge healthcare facilities .
—Read the full article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Market vulnerability
Investors turn to value stocks as loan costs rise for growth giants
Investors are turning away from the tech sources that stimulated a rise in shares such as rising loan costs and recovering the U.S. economy encouraging a shift from the fastest growing trading strategy to value stocks.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Pressure banking department
The Buy-Now-Pay business may later need Australia to boost confidence
Australian “buy-now-pay-later” players may need more regulation to protect customers after the point-of-sale credit industry has grown rapidly in recent years, helped in part by a lack of forecast, experts say.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Stable employment and high supply coverage position Banks of Latin America well to address difficult situations
Latin American banks have been able to handle the pandemic-related crisis in a relatively good state so far, backed by their strong profitability and strong regulatory capital.
– Read the full article from S&P Global Ratings
ESG during COVID-19
Transition finance: Finding a path to carbon neutrality through the capital markets
S&P Global Ratings estimates that moving finance, including exports, could add up to $ 1 trillion a year to the economy as companies in previously difficult-to-reduce sectors, or from the stable debt market, raising capital and using the money for activities that helped them reduce their carbon footprint.
– Get the full report from S&P Global Ratings
Supranational Banks’ New ESG Goals Can Increase Private Investment in Green Finance
Multilateral development banks in Europe have new criteria and higher medium-term targets for green and sustainable investments, which are likely to affect the wider market and attract more private capital to green finance.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Hydrogen Project Leaders Test Integration Before Rules: Experts
Hydrogen project leaders are testing different ways to bring hydrogen into the gas network, and trying to show if their methods work ahead of the expected rules, panelists said at meaningful summit on 10 March.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Platts
The future of energy & goods
FY2021-2022 India consumes transport fuel to continue COVID-19 fears diminish
India’s domestic consumption of transportation fuel is expected to grow strongly between April 2021 and March 2022, as focus on the country’s economic expansion returns to the platform, following fears of COVID-19.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Platts
Iron ore shipping fell 11% on the month of February, fueling high prices
Iron ore shipments by Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, Fortescue Metals Group and Roy Hill in Australia, along with the South African port of Saldanha fell 11.2% month-on-month in February but were up 3.3% year-on-year. according to S&P Global Platts’ trading streaming software, cFlow.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Platts
US EIA construction projections for 2021-22 natural gas and energy consumption
Higher projected crude oil prices and assumptions from the U.S. economic outlook prompted the March 9 Energy Information Administration to boost its forecasts for natural gas production and consumption, despite a February freeze that crippled it. production in the first quarter of 2021.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Platts
Asia’s fragile recovery path can deliver the negative impact of oil, price hikes
Asia may have avoided a sigh of relief that a drone attack in Saudi Arabia has left critical oil infrastructure unscathed, but analysts told S&P Global Platts supply shortages and high prices could come from The growing geopolitical threat of choking the region’s weak economic recovery following a pandemic. -hit year.
—Read the full article from S&P Global Platts
OPEC + seeks ‘moderate’ oil price, Saudi Foreign Minister says to meet with Russian supporter
Saudi Arabia and Russia have pledged to continue working on an OPEC + product cut deal, as Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on March 10 the group is aiming for a “moderate” price for crude oil. .
—Read the full article from S&P Global Platts
Written and compiled by Molly Mintz.