Covid ‘s recovery in Japan, South Korea could affect Asia’ s economic recovery

SINGAPORE – As 2020 draws to a close, many investors view Asia as the region with one of the best economic prospects next year thanks to its relatively better control of the market -mach coronavirus.

But a recent rise in Covid cases in some countries threatens to erode the region ‘s economic outlook, some analysts have warned.

“For some Asian giants, this year’s Covid-19 flagship is unlikely to be any better when the 12-hour clock strikes on New Year’s Eve,” said research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics.

To be sure, cases reported daily in many parts of Asia – where the virus first struck – are still lower compared to those in Europe and the US, data released by Johns University showed Hopkins together.

But some countries are now fighting a much worse recovery than their earlier experience of the pandemic. Even areas that have had great success in introducing the virus may not be saved, with Taiwan this week reporting on the first case that has been widely reported. local from April 12 – highlights the difficulty in getting rid of Covid.

Here’s a look at the Asian economies battling a recent rise in coronavirus infections and how that would affect their economic outlook.

• Tally Covid-19: 207,007 cumulative confirmed cases and 2,941 deaths as of Wednesday, according to Hopkins data.

The number of daily reported coronavirus diseases in Japan began to rise again in November and last week exceeded 3,000 for the first time, Hopkins data showed.

Medical organizations in the country have warned that the health care system is under severe pressure from the pandemic, according to Reuters. But Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has stopped declaring a state of national emergency – even though he said he would suspend a travel subsidy program to promote the spread of the coronation, the news agency said.

Economists from Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a report on Wednesday that the Japanese government’s “relatively soft” social speed rules do not appear to be working, which could lead to tougher measures in the coming months.

“Therefore, the second national crisis, and more effective, in Japan early next year can not be ruled out,” said the economists.This would put pressure on the Japanese economy in the first quarter of 2021, they said. .

• Tally Covid-19: 53,533 cumulative confirmed cases and 756 deaths as of Wednesday, according to Hopkins data.

Like Japan, South Korea’s new daily affairs this month reached unprecedented levels – surpassing 1,000 for the first time since the uprising began.

But unlike Japan, the government has taken a tougher stance in South Korea in response to the new wave of Covid cases.

The government on Tuesday announced a nationwide ban on the gathering of five or more people, and ordered tourist destinations – such as ski slopes and other winter sports facilities – to close, Yonhap News Agency reported.

Taking that step will allow most of South Korea’s economic downturn to take in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.

• Tally Covid-19: 98,737 cumulative confirmed cases and 444 deaths as of Wednesday, according to Hopkins data.

Southeast Asia’s country brought Covid’s affairs down sadly before the latest rise began in October, Hopkins data showed. This prompted the government to introduce a new round of locking measures in some parts of the country.

Economists from the Capital Economics consultation said the outlook for Malaysia’s economy has turned “lower” in this quarter, especially in terms of private spending.

“A second wave of the virus and the reset of many restrictions will reverse the strong Q3 trend in private spending. High-frequency Google move data suggests that social distance remains a drag on activity,” “they said in a report Tuesday. .

But other parts of the economy – such as exports – should continue to perform strongly, so the overall economic impact from the latest recovery is likely to be “much less” than the previous wave. , said the economists.