A combination of robust vaccination programs and strict physical body rules could avoid recurrence peaks of COVID-19 without having to rely on stay-at-home restrictions, according to a new study by epidemiologists and demographers from WorldPop at University of Southampton, in collaboration with the University of China in Hong Kong.
This research used anonymous cell phone geolocation data with epidemiological and coronavirus case data from China to model the potential impact of vaccination and physical distance on virus transmission. They predicted the impact of a combination of interventions on low, medium and high density cities in the country.
The effect of body speed in the future reintroduction of COVID-19 is largely dependent on intensity of measures, population density, and availability of vaccines across geographic and temporal regions. The researchers aimed to gain a greater understanding of the relationship between these factors.
The results are published in the journal Human Behavior Nature.
The team estimates that in most cities, combined vaccination and physical distance programs will be sufficient to sustain virus recovery without the need to severely restrict population movement. Maintenance in this study was defined as maintaining a low transmission rate, or ‘R’ below one.
The researchers report that cities with medium and high density numbers need both vaccination and speed to prevent future intense waves of COVID-19, in order to achieve herd immunity. However, they suggest that cities with low populations and effective vaccination could prevent the spread of unnecessary physical distance. In all cities, ‘stay at home’ locks would no longer be required.
The team’s findings also suggest that short-term strong physical pace interventions may be more effective than mild, long-term ones.
Our research provides a framework and set of findings that policymakers and public health authorities can use to identify appropriate intervention levels to monitor COVID-19 outbreaks over time. Although our study was based on data from China, our methods and conclusions are relevant to cities around the world with similar levels of population density and patterns of social interaction. “
Dr Shengjie Lai, Principal Research Fellow in Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Author and Spatial Epidemiologist
WorldPop Director, Professor Andy Tatem, said: “Previous studies have shown that when people reduce mobility, they reduce their social connections, but this is not necessary and as more SARS-CoV-2 vaccines online, there is an urgent need to understand the relationship between these factors, so that we can adapt and adapt interventions and open up sections of society in a safer way. “
The researchers recognize some limitations in their study, for example, the lack of data on the contribution of handwashing and exotic faces and the challenges of vaccine supply, but stress that their approach can be quickly changed to close data. has provided real-time to address exposure, time-required needs.
Source:
University of Southampton
Magazine Reference:
Huang, B., et al. (2021) Integrated vaccination and physical distance interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities. Human Behavior Nature. doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2.