PARIS: The emergence of several more infectious strains of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has alarmed governments and scientists, who are studying how and why the virus became more susceptible.
Like all viruses, SARS-CoV-2 circulates to increase its chances of survival.
When reproducing, minor errors in its genetic code will be introduced.
Most of these are uncertain. But some – like the recent virus fluctuations in Britain, South Africa and Brazil – can give the virus a definite new benefit.
“When we keep case numbers high, we increase the chances of the virus getting into strange situations, which can be rare, and most of them may not follow anywhere. “said Emma Hodcroft, an epidemiologist at the University of Bern.
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More cases equate to more emissions, which increases the chances of a major mutation, she said.
“If we keep case numbers lower, we will be basically limiting the playing field of the virus.”
Wendy Barclay, an anthropologist at Imperial College London, said mutations were the result of a number of factors.
“It’s a combination of the amount of virus out there, the number of times you roll the dice explains what happens, given the current environment of the virus, “she said.
It was not inconceivable that the new changes would emerge after a year of COVID-19 as global immune levels rise through vaccines and natural infections, she said.
“In South Africa and Brazil there was a very high level of antibody response from people who were infected and had survived the virus.”
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“IMMUNE PROJECT”
Other experts questioned that immune levels had a direct effect on conventional mutations.
Bjorn Meyer, an anthropologist at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, said it was more likely that all mutations occurred in one person, and then passed it on to others.
He explained the ability of a patient whose immune system was compromised, and therefore incapable of clearing the virus as quickly as others.
“In this patient there may be something deficient in the response so that the virus can stay around for a long time,” Meyer told AFP.
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Although the COVID-19 virus usually affects individuals for about 10 days before being neutralized by the body, some studies have shown that some patients may carry it for several years. weeks or longer – increases the window for mutations.
Fact file on the process of gene sequencing, and the mammoth work of the technology applied to the virus at the root of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo: AFP / John SAEKI)
“There is still a degree of protective pressure on the virus in this patient and the virus is being forced to circulate,” Meyer said.
He said that a more susceptible variant was likely to develop just later in the pandemic, as most people with vaccines were protected for months and so few were affected. on the disease first.
But as things arise, the chance of the virus infecting a vaccinated patient – and then circulating drastically – also grows.
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MORE VARIANTS?
Immunodeficiency may be otherwise affected by the virus.
The French Academy of Medicine says the South African variant could “come from more intense and prolonged viral reproduction in people living with HIV” – issues that are very common there.
While the origins of the various variables remain to be debated, scientists are unanimous that their impact needs to be carefully managed.
More widespread transmission of the virus has been blamed for an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Britain.
Although more contagious, there is currently no evidence to suggest that the new mutations are more potent than other forms of SARS-CoV-2.
“One cannot manage this risk,” Meyer said.
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But with current worldwide hygiene and speed measures, coupled with vaccine campaigns, it is likely that the “selective pressure” of the virus will affect transmission rather than potential, he said.
One thing is for sure: the virus will keep circulating, which could lead to more dangerous changes.
In fact, they may be circulating already.
“And with the staggering number of cases, it is not difficult to argue that there have been more changes of concern this winter and that they have not recognized what has happened. and they are now on our radar, “Washington University biologist Carl Bergstrom wrote on Twitter.
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