Cases of coronavirus have begun to decline in England but need to fall faster to ease pressure on the NHS, scientists behind Covid ‘s infection study have warned.
Researchers at Imperial College London analyzed more than 160,000 swabs taken between 6 and 22 January and found that although things fell nationally last week, the rate was not. fall sharply to reduce pressure on the health service.
“We are certainly at the heart of what we are now seeing as a decline in the final week of our study,” said Paul Elliott, professor of Imperial epidemiology and public health medicine at Imperial. “But we need to reduce frequency more quickly because the pressure on the NHS is huge right now.”
An interim report from Imperial’s React-1 study, published last week, showed that coronavirus cases in England were stable and could rise even between 6 and 15 January.
But an updated report published Thursday sent swabs for the week to January 22 and showed issues are finally starting to decline.
UK: number of coronavirus deaths per day.
The findings come as a relief to public health authorities, which are keen to see strong evidence that the lockout is reducing infection rates despite more infectious variants of the virus.
The Imperial study supports the slight downward trend similar to that seen in the latest Covid infection survey from the Office for National Statistics.
The Imperial study found that coronavirus in England was 1.57%, or 1 in 64, in the study period, with rates ranging from 2.83% or 1 in 40 in London, to 0.8% or 1 in 115 in Yorkshire and the Humber. In London, diseases are most common among people aged 13 to 24, with more than 4% testing positive.
Researchers on the study estimated that the R number was 0.98, the average number of people who are infected. To reduce epilepsy the R number must be below 1.
The shallow decline in conditions across the country is due to falls in London, the south and the north-west, which are in opposition to higher numbers of diseases in the eastern Mediterranean. and other regions such as the North East and East of England where the situation is still relatively stable.
Elliott said it was vital to keep an eye on new cases because the fall in disease was so dubious. “While we are seeing this suggestion of a decline now, and that is good news, it is not at all as fast as we saw in locking one when there was a rapid reduction in frequency, ”He said.
He said: “Without a more rapid decline from these high frequency levels there will continue to be pressure on health services, as at this stage this is feeding into hospitals, ITU admissions and sadly mortality.”