If anything is certain about the future of theaters in 2021, no one can be sure of anything.
After a year that saw the Canadian film screening industry roll over the COVID-19 pandemic, industry watchers say the country’s cinemas are sitting at a critical juncture with no clear path ahead.
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Most theaters across the country were dark over the busy holiday movie season, as they were for most of the year in many large markets. The few screens that were still working performed at a small level of their normal capacity.
Some say a permanent shutdown to prevent the release of COVID-19 could have a detrimental effect on the film theater industry, which was hit a few years ago when ticket sales declined and the flow of giants like Netflix followed suit. audience.
“There were huge challenges in this industry long before COVID ever locked us up,” said Jason Gorber, a Toronto-based film critic.
“But it’s very easy to be that and think movie theaters are dead. I don’t think that’s true at all? There is a real opportunity for change and for theaters to come back, bigger and better in some ways. ”
However, Gorber and other industry experts recognize that a happy ending for Canadian filmmakers is far from certain at this stage.
They predict that the road ahead for 2021 will be full of critical improvements, and potential problems, which may set the course for the future.
Among the most pressing issues is the pace of vaccine distribution across the country that could determine how quickly filmmakers return to theaters.
A number of blockbusters are expected to be lined up later this year, including the delayed James Bond entry “No Time to Die,” in April and “Fast & Furious 9” in May. After a year of schedule replacements, none of these release dates seem certain, especially if locksmiths continue or filmmakers don’t have the confidence to return home. -game masse.
“People are going to be a little tired of the gathering and it seems that a percentage of the audience has gone for good,” said Louis-Etienne Dubois, an assistant professor at Ryerson University who serves as director of the school’s Future of Live Entertainment Lab.
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“There is a loss in any way we cut it.”
Significant changes were already underway in the film theater industry at the onset of the pandemic as Hollywood studios battled performers over more flexible theater windows that allowed films to jump faster to streaming and rental platforms.
For years, it was movie theater owners who won, holding a 90-day ban window for big calls, but the pandemic put their hand on making exceptions.
It opened the floodgates for seismic changes, including shorter theater scripts, and unprecedented studio decisions that saw planned theater releases brought back to home theaters.
The sudden move has shaken up the industry, sometimes leading to intense public spats between Hollywood executives and lobbyists for exhibitors.
David Hancock, Omdia’s London-based senior research manager who studies the global film market, says the suggestion that theaters are on the brink of death is “hyperbole.”
“Everyone is missing out on a plot,” he says.
“Cinemas are fundamentally a very valuable social and economic force. They are a great place to launch a film, and get people together, and they are the only place outside the home where you can watch a film. ”
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Hancock says it ‘s not certain that streaming platforms will derail your movie theater experience anytime soon. People are still thirsty to watch entertainment on a big screen, he argues, and it’s a multi-billion dollar business that he doesn’t think can be sustained on streaming platforms at a low price.
“Movies have value,” he says. “And they need that value to make as much money as they can, to prove $ 200 million in production costs and another $ 200 million in marketing. If you start working around that, it will start to fall apart. ”
However, that does not mean that there will be no widespread consolidation of cinema chains in some countries, or a sharp decline in the number of movie screens as smaller markets lose their complexity.
For Canada’s largest film series Cineplex Inc. and second operator Landmark Cinemas, their return to normalcy could be devastating.
In the first three quarters of last year, Cineplex’s revenue fell as regional COVID-19 measures significantly reduced theater capacity, and an undeveloped slate of films attracted smaller audiences .
The value of Cineplex shares has fallen by more than 70 per cent since the outbreak began, as London-based Cineworld took $ 2.8 billion in a row, and the virus made the company put off work.
Last month, Cineplex announced plans to shore up $ 57 million by selling its Toronto headquarters and using that money to repay debts.
Company CEO Ellis Jacob is confident that efforts to cut weather costs will help get audiences back in the seats.
“I feel like we’ll have a big pop when things start to get better,” he said.
“We feel that 2021 is going to be a terrible year in this industry.”
Jacob points to other countries that have seen filmmakers return in the highest numbers once pandemic measures have subsided. China saw hard ticket sales for some country films in the months after they were locked up, and Japan received box office records with the anime “hit Demon Slayer,” which became the country’s biggest major film ever. December.
It remains to be seen whether North American audiences can take the same interest in “Black Widow,” the next entry in the Marvel franchise, or the Ghostbusters series.
Cineplex has a few options that it can follow to bring back audiences.
Jacob has expressed an interest in trying out “dynamic pricing” for films, a model similar to airlines and hotels that changes the cost of a ticket based on demand. In theory, it could raise filmmakers who are aware of out-of-hours costs.
The company could also make a belated router into the membership film pass you can watch, allowing cardholders access to theaters on a regular basis. The concept has been very popular with filmmakers at U.S. chains for years, but Jacob has not tested this model as part of Cineplex plans.
But before cinemas can even think about innovation, federal and regional directors need to recognize the damage done by closure and do well with financial support, said Ken Charko, BC division director of the Canadian Movie Theater Association.
Quebec executives have announced $ 4.6 million in grants to help the region’s cinemas recover through the closure of COVID-19. The money will go to theaters in Quebec only, rather than to national chains like Cineplex. Charko, which runs the Dunbar Independent Theater in Vancouver, wants to see similar moves from other areas.
“Does the government have to help the industry? until we get to the point where we can survive and prosper, ”he says.
“When there is a big change, I believe there is an opportunity for growth. The steps that will be taken will explain that. ”
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