The global food system could lead to rapid and widespread biodiversity loss if it is not reversed, a new study has found.
Results published in Sustainability of nature shows that the global food system needs to change to prevent habitat loss around the world. It shows that what we eat and how it is made needs to change quickly and drastically to prevent widespread and severe biodiversity loss.
The international research team was led by the University of Leeds and the University of Oxford.
Dr David Williams, of Leeds School of Earth and Environment, and the Institute for Sustainability Research, is the lead author of the paper.
He said: “We have estimated how the expansion of agriculture to feed an increasingly affluent global population could affect around 20,000 species of mammals, birds and amphibians.
“Our research suggests that without major changes to food systems, millions of square kilometers of natural habitat could be lost by 2050.
“Nearly 1,300 species are likely to lose at least a quarter of their remaining habitat, and hundreds could lose at least half. This makes them far more likely to become extinct.
“Ultimately, we need to change what we eat and how it is done if we are to save wildlife on a global scale. We need to change both our diet and our food production methods. “
The study estimated how food systems would affect biodiversity at an area of scale better than previous research (2.25 km2), making the results more relevant to conservation activity by clarifying exactly which species and forms. potentially endangered landscapes.
It did so by linking projections of the amount of agricultural land required by each country with a new model that assesses where agricultural expansion and abandonment is most likely to occur.
By looking at whether individual animal species can survive on farmland or not, the researchers were able to estimate changes in habitat, finding that there was a significant loss to particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of Central and South America.
Many of the species that are more likely to be listed as endangered are therefore not likely to be targeted by conservationists at present.
Dr Michael Clark, from Oxford Martin School and Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, is also the lead author of the paper.
He said: “With international biodiversity targets set to be updated in 2021, these results highlight the importance of proactive efforts to protect biodiversity by reducing demand. for agricultural land.
“Discussions on the slowdown and return of biodiversity often focus on routine conservation actions, such as establishing new protected areas or species-specific legislation for endangered species. These are absolutely needed, and have been effective in conserving biodiversity.
“However, our research emphasizes the importance of also reducing the final pressures on biodiversity – such as agricultural expansion.
“The good news is that if we make ambitious changes to the food system, we can prevent almost all of these environmental losses. “
The study examined the potential impact of these ambitious changes, modeling the feasibility of a shift to a healthy diet, reductions in food and waste loss, increased crop yields, and design. international land use reduce future biodiversity loss.
This approach enables policymakers and conservationists to identify which changes are likely to benefit most in their country or region.
For example, increasing agricultural production may bring significant benefits to biodiversity in sub – Saharan Africa, but very few in North America where yields are already high.
In contrast, moving to a healthier diet would have major benefits in North America, but is less likely to benefit significantly in regions where meat consumption is low and food insecurity is high.
Dr Clark said: “Importantly, we have to do all of these things. One approach alone is not enough.
“However, with global coordination and swift action, it should be possible to deliver healthy diets to the global population by 2050 without major habitat loss.”
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Authors: Dr David Williams (University of Leeds); Dr Michael Clark, University of Oxford; Dr Graeme Buchanan (RSPB); Professor Francesco Ficetola (Università degli Studi di Milano, University of Grenoble Alpes); Professor Carlo Rondinini (Sapienza Università di Roma); Professor David Tilman (University of Minnesota, University of California Santa Barbara).
The researcher analyzed the potential effects of agricultural expansion on an unprecedented number (nearly 20,000), while clearly outlining differences in how. individual land use change could affect individual species, and by analyzing how proactive food system movements could mitigate future biodiversity decline.
The team developed a flexible, wide-ranging land allocation model at a resolution of 1.5 x 1.5 km based on observed changes in agricultural land cover from 2001-2013 and broadly clear data on decisions made. ‘change in land cover’ may include the suitability of the area for agricultural production, current agricultural land cover, changing patterns of previous agricultural cover, proximity to other agricultural land, market access, and where areas are protected.
In particular, they used satellite data from 2000-2013 to calculate changes in agricultural land cover, and then constructed statistical models to explain these patterns of change. By linking these models to estimates of future land demand, based on population sizes, GDP per capita and agricultural output, they were able to project where, and how much, agricultural land was likely to be. change in the future.
The Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services are taking place in 2021.