Column: CBOT corn bullish money, soy prospects backed by S. America risks

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (Reuters) – Speculators’ bullish bets in Chicago corn and soybeans have been opening at unusually high levels so far this year as global supply is seen falling to multi – year levels. The lack of supportive new news was somewhat scarce last month, although concerns about crops in South America renewed price expectations late last week.

Soy plants can be seen on farmland in Chivilcoy, on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, Argentina April 8, 2020. REUTERS / Agustin Marcarian

In the week ending March 2, cash managers paid their long net in CBOT corn and options times to 348,546 contracts from 361,151 the previous week, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (

Over the same period, currencies also reduced their net long – term futures and CBOT soybean options to 155,561 contracts from 172,364 in the previous week, their biggest wife sale in two months. That move was driven by the departure of full-fledged ships, which reduced total length as of March 2 to its lowest levels since August. (

While money managers did not establish a strong sales move in corn and soybeans last month, other speculative traders have lost hope.

Other reported traders cut through March 2 the long net in corn futures and options for the sixth week in a row. They sold nearly 66,000 contracts within those six weeks, a third of their position, which was mostly in mid-January. The sentiment of bullish soybean traders has gone down 41% since then.

Market bulls were disappointed that China failed to follow up on a large U.S. corn purchase in January with more large orders in February, even though the U.S. has full export promises for both U.S. corn and soybeans. highest rates for the current marketing year.

But things are not unknown in South America. Brazil’s big soybean harvest is underway despite some delays, and the weather has turned dry for Argentina’s crops, which are at critical yield levels. A second crop of corn imported from Brazil is being planted late, raising production risks down the road.

Most active corn futures had not changed much over the last three sessions while soybeans rose more than 1%, and commodity money was seen as net buyers of both. However, the canceled contracts are outpacing those nearby as a pressure boost for major U.S. harvests.

New December times hit a new record high on Friday of $ 4.82-1 / 4 per bushel and settled near the highs. November soybeans failed to make a high on Friday, but the settlement of $ 12.47-1 / 4 per bushel was the highest in the contract.


Money managers have maintained extremely bullish outlook for CBOT soybean oil futures and options over the past six months. In the week ending March 2, they reduced their long net to 108,081 contracts from 112,645 in the previous week, although they appear to have bought back even more contracts late last week.

Money cuts the long net in futures and soybean food options by just over 4,000 contracts through March 2 to 65,424 contracts, while futures moved slightly lower between Wednesday and Friday.

Soybean oil times rose 4.3% over the last three sessions, hitting 52.17 cents per pound on Friday, the highest at the most active contract since February 2013. These gains were backed by a sharp rise in U.S. crude oil futures, which on Friday hit their highest mark in more than a year.

Money managers raised bullish bets in CBOT wheat futures and options through March 2 to 31,803 contracts, a four – month high, from 26,910 in the previous week. Their long net in Kansas City wheat fell nearly 1,500 futures and options contracts to 51,724.

The largest relative movement in wheat sentiment was in Minneapolis wheat futures and options, as cash managers increased their long net to 14,101 contracts from 12,153 in the previous week. That followed four consecutive weeks of sales.

Traders had been concerned that a poor seeding situation in Russia’s major wheat exports had affected the crop, but state weather forecasters said late last week that rates had risen. greatly improved as a result of the mild winter.

However, U.S. crops are still being monitored after last month’s cold eruption and persistent dry conditions in some areas. Crop levels in the Plains, including Kansas’ top producer, fell in the most recent week.

CBOT wheat futures have fallen 2% over the last three sessions, although the contract remains at an eight-year low for the time of year.