Blueprint for understanding pandemic

Scientists and public health experts have been raising the alert for decades, forcing public officials to prepare for the inevitable spread of viral infections. Infectious diseases that were as uncommon as “the flu” and as deadly as the Ebola virus provided ample warning, yet government officials were caught under guard and badly prepared for COVID-19 treatment. Three future-oriented researchers and policy experts map out “An Epidemiological Blueprint for Understanding the Dynamics of a Pandemic.”

COVID Detectors

Researchers around the world have become forensic, like Sherlock Holmes as “advisory detectors” for government officials and public health agencies. Treating tens of thousands of samples, epidemiologists, such as ETH Professor Zurich Tanja Stadler, can now reconstruct SARS-CoV-2 in areas where contact detection is not available. Unlike the fictional Holmes, modern-day researchers benefit from real-time statistical tools to determine the genetic code of various viral strains. Stadler, who attends Switzerland ‘s National COVID Science Action Group, says, “Just as in humans, the genetic code of pathogens reveals a plan with information about the evolution of the virus and how it began. The blue plan enables us to understand the type and possible origin of the virus rays that circulate within a country, identify new changes with features novel; and work out its reproductive rate – the average number of secondary infections a person infects. “

The Stadler team oversees the dissemination of new changes within Switzerland and places the series in an international context. Prior to the discovery of the new variant B 1.1.7 in the United Kingdom, scientists used Stadler genomic data to identify another variable that quickly spread across Europe in the summer of 2020. It was first discovered in agricultural area in Spain and some potential cross-distribution events led to a rapid expansion of this variety. Compared with B 1.1.7, the variant of the virus from Spain did not show a transmission advantage over the original strain of the virus. The time came when this strain began in the summer holidays and, according to Stadler, is likely to spread when foreign visitors returned home to Switzerland, the UK, and other countries.

Like many other viruses, SARS-CoV-2 circulates every two weeks. Scientists are unable to determine at this stage how quickly the virus will adapt to the human immune system and whether annual vaccines will be needed in the future. There is currently no link between patient meta-data and genomic sequences. Unrelated data represent one of the many connections needed to fully understand the dynamics of pandemic disease. Stadler suggests that if scientists were able to link this information and, indeed, ensure patient privacy, it would be better for them to answer important questions about new changes and the their distribution rates.

The hunt for animal X.

Over the past quarter of a year, bats have spread some of the world’s most deadly events of Zoonotic viruses. Because bats live in high-density colonies and are the only mammals that fly, they are often intermediate viral hosts between animals (horses, pigs, and even camels) or spread. viruses directly to humans. Professor Linfa Wang from Duke-NUS School of Medicine explains that one of the worrying aspects of SARS-CoV-2 is the fact that humans can also pass the virus to other species, as we have seen on recitation with minks and other animals. Animals can then pass mutated rays of the virus back to humans in a process called “bleeding.”

The future reduction of viral pandemics has prompted international experts and scientists to hunt down “Animal X” to find out where SARS-Cov-2 came from. Although the hunt may begin in Wuhan, China, the high number of bat colonies in parts of Southeast Asia and South China leaves experts skeptical that viruses may appear to be circulating in the human population of these regions for several years. Recent decisions have confirmed such an idea. As far as Professor Wang is concerned, SARS-like viruses are not currently present in bat colonies in North America, but with the potential for recurrence, Wang recommends a Serological study. Monitoring changes in bat numbers could act as an advance warning system for potential public health hazards.

In May 2020, just 70 days after Wang gave birth, he and his team developed the first approved antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Known as the “cPass,” the test measures the neutralization of antibodies that may be valuable in developing a “future immune passport.” Working with the World Health Organization (WHO) , Wang is now creating a global monitoring protocol, an international standard measurement unit, and neutralizing antibody testing. It was perhaps these heroic tactics against pandemic that inspired his unofficial title as “The Batman of Singapore.”

Going Against Eternal Danger

Microbes existed long before human existence and are likely to be around long after we cease to exist. While it may not look like that in the midst of a pandemic, “In today’s world of medicine, we have (for the most part) won the battle against the microbes,” he said. Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm was also on the Biden Transition Team COVID-19 Advisory Board. He has spent much of his career in a chess-like game anticipating the next move at microbial evolution and strategizing public health policies to address unbelievable threats.

A plan for understanding the dynamics of a pandemic requires “creative imagination – the ability to anticipate the unbelievable and create a plausible public response,” says Osterholm. Commenting on the death rate of U.S. soldiers in World War I, Osterholm reveals that nearly 7 out of 8 American soldiers died not from fighting, but from a pandemic of the Spanish flu in 1918. With historical knowledge of pandemics and outbreaks such as SARS, MERS, and Ebola, he asks, “Why did COVID-19 capture the world under guard, unprepared, and seemingly incapable of large-scale impact? see the pandemic? ”The pandemic seems to be conventional“ not even the big one, ”he suggests. “A flu pandemic, like the Spanish flu, could be even more devastating than COVID-19.”

Infectious disease highlights the weaknesses in global societies from global food systems to demographic inequality. Osterholm explained that in order to feed the nearly 8 billion people on earth, we will raise about 23 billion chickens, and, as of 2020, 678 million pigs. Although bird flu viruses do not usually affect humans, when chickens live close to pigs, transmission does occur. Viruses can infect both human and bird viruses creating new genetic exchanges and mutations that can be passed on to humans with potentially fatal consequences. Osterholm emphasized that ethnic groups and indigenous societies suffer inequality for a number of reasons – many of which stem from social discrimination, inequality and poverty.

Tanja Stadler, Linfa Wang, and Michael Osterholm agree and advocate for an internationally coordinated response to COVID-19. Osterholm stressed the need to understand how public health practices interact with everyday life in several countries around the world. He says, “The largest vaccines and the best devices in the world will be rendered ineffective if we do not get the support and acceptance of the public.”

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ETH Zurich AAAS 2021 Scientific Sessions:

EurekAlert! AAAS Press Release 2021

Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 10:00 am EST

Speakers: Tanja Stadler, ETH Zurich, Linfa Wang, Duke-NUS School of Medicine, and Sarah Cobey, University of Chicago.

LIVE Conversation

Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 11:00 am EST

Speakers: Tanja Stadler, ETH Zurich, Linfa Wang, Duke-NUS School of Medicine, and Michael Osterholm, University of Minnesota

Respondent: Sarah Cobey, University of Chicago

Moderator: Chris Luebkeman, ETH Zurich

Speaker videos

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