Biden’s problem in Iran gets worse during the day

Thanks to provocative moves by Iran and less systematic actions by the outgoing Trump administration, the president is embarking on an increasingly precarious situation when it comes to e to Iran, an American nemesis that has been a target for many. of instability in the Middle East,

In the past week alone, President Donald Trump’s team has sent B-52 bombers to the Gulf of Persia in response to an Iranian attack plan and re-issued an order to the USS Nimitz , the only U.S. aircraft carrier in the region to take home.

On Monday, Iran not only announced that they had resumed uranium enrichment in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal but also seized an oil tanker with a South Korean flag and its crew. This flamboyant combination comes just two weeks before the presidential election threatens to cancel or at least delay Biden’s hopes of returning the U.S. to the nuclear deal that Trump withdrew in 2018 .

A look at the latest developments:

Does this mean a dangerous increase in tension?

Concerns have been high for some weeks about Iran maintaining tensions, especially around Jan. 3 years since the US killed a senior Iranian general in Iraq. U.S. officials have been vigilant for a possible retaliation in Iran, including from friendly militias in Iraq that previously launched rockets at U.S. facilities in the country.

While the news of the embargo or the seizure of a South Korean-flagged ship did not reveal the general’s death, both movements raised tensions in the region, which has long been invisible.

Does it appear to be a military act?

Part of the concern is that one wrong move – or deliberate incitement – has the potential to provoke war.

There is no indication that the U.S. is planning an attack on Iran, although Trump has said he would respond to any attack by Iran or its affiliated militias in Iraq that resulted in American death. The U.S. military has long had a variety of weapons and troops in the Middle East that could be called up in the event of an enemy attack. But Trump himself has put forward the idea of ​​getting more work in the Middle East wars.

It is the situation that worries U.S. military officials who have planned an Iranian invasion, either within Iraq or elsewhere in the Gulf region, that would incite Trump to retaliate. leading to an increase that could provoke wider war. That’s part of the reason the U.S. has kept an aircraft carrier in the region near a continuous level since May 2019, when the White House first confirmed that Iran was planning attacks on U.S. workers.

Why would the Nimitz be ordered home, then sent back?

The infamous Nimitz flip-flop by the acting secretary of defense, Christopher Miller, seemed to thwart US Central Command’s attempts to convince Iran that it would not pay to attack him. US forces.

The large ship, full of attack and support planes, was literally leaving the area when it received word to turn around and go back.

Putting Nimitz’s home on board had been on board for weeks, as the carrier had been scheduled for a long time and was expected to be home by the end of 2020. His tour was extended a few weeks to provide support for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia. But as tensions erupted with Iran in mid-December, Central Command wanted to keep the Nimitz nearby. Instead, on December. 31, Miller announced that he had ordered a return home. Three days later, he turned back and said he would stay.

The cancellation of the home order for the Nimitz surprised some defense officials, suggesting that the decision may have been made at the White House rather than as a result of new arguments from officials. weapons.

What is the purpose of flying B-52 bombers in the Gulf?

These long bomb trips are not uncommon, but have become a bit more common in the last few weeks as a display of weapons. Three B-52 bombing missions have been in the area in less than two months, most recently in December. 30.

The round-trip flights from the United States are expected to show how quickly bombers can get to the area. They can be equipped with standard or nuclear missiles. Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, U.S. chief executive for the Middle East, made the clear message this week, saying, “We are not seeking conflict, but no one should underestimate our potential. defend our forces or take firm action in response to any attack. “

What does all this mean for Biden’s policy in Iran?

Biden’s transition team has declined to comment in detail on the latest developments and what they mean for their plans. However, Biden and his top national support officers have explained their approach to Iran in broad strokes. At the top of that list Iran regains compliance with the nuclear treaty and then extends that agreement to include non-nuclear conduct that was not covered by the original agreement.

Iran, however, has said it will not return to compliance unless the U.S. returns to the treaty and removes sanctions that Trump re-imposed over the past two years. gone. At the same time, Biden’s supporters have said Iran cannot win sanctions relief unless and until it respects the treaty.

Iran’s latest actions, along with the movement of Trump administration forces, are causing a dilemma in diplomacy and raising the risk of error, especially as tensions remain high between Iran and its neighbors.

The increased tensions, which have prompted the highest warning levels for U.S. workers in Iraq, could make it difficult for the incoming Biden administration to crack down on. pivot the more aggressive weapons towards Russia and China.