Biden has a strategy in the face of a ticking Iranian bomb

Therefore, it was encouraging to realize that even before the inauguration, President-elect Biden and senior government officials had set national and international priorities for themselves, and had already begun practical preparations to implement it. It was during President Trump’s time that it was painfully proven in the negative that there is no substitute for US leadership in the free world, and that the global agenda imposes itself on the internal agenda – economic, sanitary and political – in the United States.

Therefore, in parallel with the three main vectors in the Native American arena — the effort to reduce corona mortality, the effort to rehabilitate the economy from the plague, and the effort to mend the social and political divisions in the U.S. that Trump has deepened — Biden and senior government officials will have to address four major international challenges.

Speaks of the trade crisis with China and the halting of the Chinese attempt to seize East Asia by force; In the nuclear and missile restriction agreements with Russia and in curbing cyberattacks through which Moscow seeks to undermine the US democratic regime and Washington’s position in the international arena; U.S. Traditions in Europe and the Americas.

Israel has a direct or indirect impact on each of these vectors: for example, a strong US military and economic base is not only a security and strategic backbone in routine and war, but also an important component in Israel’s deterrence. The State of Israel’s political position and influence in the international and regional arena will be strengthened. Directly if Biden succeeds in reducing the political and social polarization within his country, and if at the same time the leadership in Jerusalem acts with the aim of re-establishing itself at the heart of the political consensus in the United States.

What happens in the Sino-American arena will directly affect Israel’s economy, and competition (or cooperation) between the US and Russia will indirectly affect what will happen in Syria and Lebanon, and even Turkey-Israel relations – but the main thing right now from Israel’s point of view is what will happen in the active conflict. With Iran.

To be honest: Trump’s economic “maximum pressure” on Tehran has failed to get Iran to negotiate a new nuclear and missile deal, or even an amendment to the old nuclear deal. Worse, Iran took advantage of the US withdrawal to violate its nuclear deal with the superpowers and move a long way toward the bomb.

According to Israeli and international experts, Iran is currently eight to ten months away from owning one nuclear warhead. In May 2018, when Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, Iran was a year away from its first nuclear facility.

It can be estimated that if Iran’s nuclear program is not halted very soon, it could be a threshold nuclear country by the end of the current year. There is no need to go back and detail what the consequences of such a situation will be. The bottom line is that Iran has nuclear weapons, or even if it only has a proven ability to produce nuclear weapons in a short time, it will change the face of the Middle East and become a global threat. Israel has already announced that it will not be able to come to terms with such a situation, so there is a high probability that it will act militarily to prevent it. Israeli action could ignite a war that other countries in the region will be dragged into, as well as the United States.

Senior members of the new administration – Secretary of State Tony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the president himself – openly say that this scenario deprives them of sleep, not only because of Israel but because Iran has nuclear and missile strategic capabilities and poses a direct threat to US interests and national security. US. Therefore, the most reliable Western sources say that resolving or at least an interim settlement of the crisis with Iran are high on the priority list of the incoming US administration.

The strategy chosen by the people of Biden is a diplomatic effort to offer Iran carrots and sticks, to persuade it to move through negotiations and steps towards a new comprehensive agreement that will ensure not only long-term containment of Iran’s military nuclear program but also selective restraint of missile development, equipment and distribution. (Ballistic, cruise, UAV) by Iran and reducing regional subversion through emissaries.

The Israeli defense establishment believes that it is neither desirable nor sensible to oppose in a sweeping way, and certainly not openly, the moves planned by the Biden administration in the Iranian context. “From the statements of the Biden administration, it is clear to us that they see the threats posed by Iran with the same severity and intensity as we do, and that they are determined to prevent Iran from being nuclear,” says an Israeli source.

In an interview during Trump’s last days as president, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that a return to the old nuclear deal would be an unwise act, but sources say he already recognizes that Trump’s sanctions alone will not deter Iran from its nuclear ambitions. In the diplomatic path.

Conclusion: It is better to cooperate with them. A confrontation with Biden’s democratic government during the upcoming election campaign could harm Netanyahu’s chances of becoming Israel’s next prime minister, and worse, could jeopardize security and military cooperation with the United States on the eve of a possible major confrontation with Iran.

In this situation, the limited political and security leadership of the State of Israel, including Netanyahu, Some requirements and requests for the Biden administration:

The main Israeli request – Do not rush to drop the economic leverage on Iran. The harsh sanctions on oil exports and the participation of the ayatollahs in the international financial system have been and remain the main means of pressure, in fact the only one, that could persuade the Iranians to enter into negotiations and show willingness to make concessions.

Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal has returned that leverage to the US arsenal, and the Biden administration, according to Jerusalem, needs to show sophistication and creativity in order to continue to hold it like a whip over Iran’s regime heads until most of the negotiations are achieved.

The Second Israeli Demand – Consult us and coordinate with us. Not only in retrospect, after you closed with the Iranians, but before and during the preliminary contacts and the main negotiations.

The third requirement – Do not be content with Iran returning to the original nuclear deal and returning the components of the Iranian military nuclear project to the situation that prevailed in May 2018 – before Trump withdrew from the agreement. A new nuclear deal should be pursued, which would also include missiles of all types capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Another area where there is likely to be a conflict between the current Israeli government and the Biden government is the effort to reach an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Senior Biden government officials said they saw a two-state solution as the only desirable and possible solution that would not only satisfy the Palestinians’ aspiration for self-determination but also prevent Israel from the danger of a bi-national state in which Jews would become a minority.

This issue is less urgent from an American point of view on the Iranian issue, because its potential is less explosive and because the threat it poses to the interests of the United States and its allies in the region is much smaller. Trump has given Israel an important gift in this area: A veto on the normalization of Arab countries’ relations with the State of Israel.

Israel rightly argues that this development may over time produce a more compromising and realistic Palestinian approach to resolving the conflict. But also in the Palestinian issue, the Progressive wing of the American Democratic Party is expected to put pressure on the Biden administration, which in any case believes that the United States has a commitment to end the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and reach a stable solution to the conflict.

Therefore, the Biden administration will demand that Israel not “establish facts” that would jeopardize the opening of negotiations at some point in the future. That is, not to build new settlements, not to expand old ones and not to train outposts. The result could be an escalation of the conflict between the right-wing government in Israel and the new administration in Washington.

These are the two main issues that could obscure Washington-Jerusalem relations, and interfere with Israel in its efforts to return to the heart of the consensus among American Jews and return to being above party rivalry in American politics. In most other important issues, such as maintaining Israel’s qualitative-quantitative-military advantage. No significant disagreements are expected with the new administration.

But there is one obstacle that, if not eliminated, will disrupt Washington-Jerusalem relations: the hostility, resentment and distrust of senior Biden government officials and the president himself to Prime Minister Netanyahu. This bad blood was created by Netanyahu, when he confronted President Obama and his senior aides and even looted them. The same aides have taken up positions today in the most senior key positions in the political-security establishment in Washington. One can only hope that their professionalism, time and politics will overcome the need to settle accounts with Netanyahu on the backs of the citizens of the State of Israel.