SYDNEY (Reuters) – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep its currency at a historically low level of 0.1% at the first policy meeting of the year on February 2, a Reuters poll of 22 economists showed.
The central bank also appears to be announcing an expansion of its A $ 100 billion ($ 73.93 billion) monetary discount program, which is set to expire in April, the poll showed.
All but one of the 22 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the currency rate to be stable at 0.1% by the end of 2022. Host Plus pension fund expects to cut the cash rate to 0.05% at the February meeting.
The Australian economy is likely to hold $ 2 trillion ($ 1.53 trillion) around 3% in 2020, which would be a very small decline from previous forecasts, given the country’s success in halting on a coronavirus pandemic allowing businesses to reopen and resume domestic travel.
Policymakers still expect the bumpy and uneven recovery with the RBA reiterating that it will not raise the currency level until real inflation is within its 2-3% target band.
Data released earlier in the week showed that annual growth in the average trim inflation rate was at its lowest level of 1.2% in the fourth December, a green light for the RBA to push policy keeping it extremely appropriate.
“We expect to see more positive communication from the RBA next week, in terms of global growth, local growth and the labor market,” said Nomura analyst Andrew Ticehurst.
“We also believe it is too early to see any real change in RBA policy or guidance,” Ticehurst said. “We plan to expand QE in April.”
RBA Governor Philip Lowe is ready to deliver a speech on Wednesday in Canberra, following Tuesday’s meeting, and he would then appear before a parliamentary economics committee on Friday.
Reciting with Swati Pandey; Edited by Sam Holmes