Maybe one day we will send a group of oil rig workers to a place on a mission that is not advised to blast an asteroid from the inside, but it is not going to happen during this century.
Asteroid 99942, titled “Apophis,” was first detected in 2004 and was previously identified as a potential impact threat. Now, NASA says the “small” concern about a possible Earth-crash in 2068 can be safely dispelled, with radar observations effectively eliminating any chance. may that happen.
“The impact of 2068 is not in the capacity scenario now, and our calculations do not show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years,” said Davide Farnocchia, whose focus at NASA is close to studies land.
Apophis, which has a path through outer space located near our planet whenever it passes, was previously seen as a potential impact threat for 2029. There was always a chance low there – 2.7 per cent, based on the first calculations made in 2004 – and was eventually rejected outright, and also a similar concern to a possible 2036 crash, which had chance 1 in 250,000 happened first.
As NASA’s new release notes, although these earlier scenarios were rejected, there was still little potential for impact in 2068. Now, thanks to data collected after a remote flyby on March 5, that can be removed from the list as well.
“With the help of recent optical observation and additional radar observations, the uncertainty in the Apophis orbit has dropped from hundreds of kilometers to just a few kilometers when projected to 2029,” Farnocchia said. “This much improved experience set in 2029 provides more certainty about its future movement, so that we can now remove Apophis from the [Sentry Impact Risk Table]. “
The Farnocchia risk register referred to is an ongoing catalog of space-borne objects that will or will pass close enough to Earth to impact risk. It is therefore interesting that the most recent data and comments collected after the March 5 flyby suggested that Apophis was removed from the list.
Asteroids are certainly larger than Apophis, which is about 1,100 feet – or just over three football fields – across. But it is still large enough to provoke concerns about potential impacts, going back to what it found in 2004 and concerns about impacts (again, at a distance) that could 2029. So the fact that it has now been removed from the Risk Register is a welcome development, especially for a research community that sometimes struggles to present real risks to a public that is easily intimidated. put on.
In addition, with fears of an impact now out of the picture, NASA’s near-Earth material researchers can fully focus on the possibilities of an asteroid’s orbit such as Apophis. getting as close as it flies past.
“When I started working with asteroids after college, Apophis was the poster child for dangerous asteroids,” Farnocchia said. “We are very pleased to see him removed from the risk list, and we look forward to the science we could discover during his close approach in 2029.”