Wind and sun make up a small share of U.S. electricity production today, but they are poised to build 70 percent of the capacity of new power plants this year.
That’s not according to pro-solar activists or industry trade groups. It is the calculation of the federal government.
Solar will deliver the latest capacity, with 39 percent, according to the latest view by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Winds continue close behind with 31 percent. The long-awaited Vogtle nuclear plant in Georgia could fold one of its reactors this year, adding another 3 percent. And battery storage grows to 11 percent of new capacity, with a carbon impact determined by the cleanliness of the electricity that builds them.
Natural gas, the main source of fuel for U.S. electricity, is not expected to account for 16 percent of the capacity of new power plants. Almost all of these gas generators appear in Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania, the EIA noted.
This chart spans competitive markets and tells where monopoly resources are calling the sights. In particular, it only counts utility-level projects, so supply and batteries at homes and businesses will produce even greater clean energy production. In any case, the figures show that the energy industry has not just embraced wind and solar power, but has embraced them to the point where they are gaining control of new construction. Of the new plants built this year, 84 percent will deliver electricity without burning fossil fuels.
Large-scale solar plants will dominate as the largest source of new power equipment capacity this year, according to a government study. (Graphic Credit: EIA)
That’s a dramatic shift from the market landscape just a few years ago, and it reflects continued cost declines as the industry picks up and renewable supply chains mature. The numbers arrive as the incoming Biden Administration considers major legislation to boost the economy and tackle the planet’s warming emissions at the same time.
In the past, when wind and sun were more expensive, opponents of clean energy investment saw it as a threat to the economy. President Donald Trump did just that when he withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, which he said would “place magical financial and economic burdens. “
But clean energy doesn’t look as dangerous to business when energy companies themselves choose it to meet their needs. In the last few years, almost every major public utility company has pledged to cut its carbon emissions by the middle of the century. That’s not as aggressive a timeline as Joe Biden’s 2035 suggested date for a carbon-free power system, but it depends on the end state you want.
The 2021 outlook is not good for carbon-free energy sources, however.
Nuclear plants, which produce power without emissions all day and night, will lead the program for power plants closing down this year. Unit 3 will close New York’s Indian Point, reducing capacity for New York City’s critical division. The Exelon Corporation is closing its Byron and Dresden plants in Illinois. These three plants add up to 5.1 gigawatts, about 5 percent of the country’s nuclear fleet.
Some 56 percent of the power capacity that retires this year will be nuclear, and coal plants make up 30 percent.