CHINESE scientists have discovered two new strains of African swine fever virus (ASFv) that may make it harder to control the disease. The findings of the study, conducted at the Harbin Institute for Medical Research, were released in late February and found that the two growing series were highly transient but not as strong as the maximum weight, making them more challenging to recognize.
Multi-storey pigs are being raised in China as they rebuild their herdsman. Photo: Yangxiang
It came as no surprise that the researchers found complex genetic diversity in the field considering the large number of pigs in China and the prevalence of African swine fever (ASF) in the country’s swine population for more and two years. The scientists took 3660 samples from farms, abattoirs and disposal plants across seven areas in the second half of 2020. They isolated and differentiated 22 viruses belonging to the ASFv genotype, and there were mutations, deletions gene or transplants compared to HLJ / 18, the original loneliness was discovered in China in 2018.
However, it is the emergence of the two lowest wild-type natural mutants that creates the greatest challenge for ASFv control because the signs and symptoms of the new variants are far more difficult to identify in the field. Moreover, low life density does not mean lower risk because the emerging rays are just as lethal as the original variant.
Despite enduring promises, vaccines are not yet commercially available for ASFv control in China. Therefore, disease control depends on early and rapid detection, followed by immediate eradication of infected animals. But experts say low levels of biosecurity, lack of an industry-wide control regime, and local government outbreaks of outbreaks have allowed the disease to spread.
The second wave of anxiety
Before the inception of ASF, the number of pigs in China was 435 million heads or about 50 percent of the world’s herd. Officially, this dropped 42cc to about 254M heads at the height of the revolution that led to farm closures and a severe shortage of pork for Chinese buyers. Some unofficial reports put the decline in animal registers even higher, at 60pc of pre-ASF levels.
China accounts for nearly 50pc of pig consumption in the world. The shortage of supply pushed domestic prices to record levels in 2020 as the economy recovered from another virus, COVID-19. Imports increased sharply, and the government was forced to tap into pig stores to fill the supply gap and reduce rising prices.
The Chinese Government has been very bullish and vocal about getting rid of the big herd, and the Ministry of Agriculture recently announced that they expected seed and pig numbers to be back to pre-existing levels. revolution by mid-2021. But Simon Quilty, of Global AgriTrends, casts doubt on hopes. He believes a second wave of ASF has killed 7-8M sows in the past two months, putting a hard brake on the recovery.
Despite the elevated quarantine regimes and the rapid development of modern whale, many challenges remain for the pig industry in China. And according to Simon, there is plenty of data that shows that government astronomy is very different from the real picture. Who would have thought?
Meat, pig prices rise
Recent domestic pig prices hit 98 renminbi (RMB) per capita, almost four times the 25RMB paid before the revolution began in 2018. There was almost no reasonable response in price to enough! Similarly, pig prices are higher than pre-ASF double prices at 30-40RMB per kilogram. And breeding sows are around two and a half times the price of early 2018.
Chinese protein shortages are also reflected in domestic meat prices, with pork currently selling at around 135cc higher than the average price paid in the three years before the revolution. The selling price of beef is over 40cc higher than the same base period.
Chinese meat imports have also gone up. According to Chinese Government data, combined imports of pork, beef and chicken in 2017 amounted to 2.7M tons. By 2020 that had risen by more than 325pc to 8.8Mt, mainly due to a fall in domestic pig production following the ASF revolution. The trend has continued into 2021 with China importing 1.6Mt of meat in January and February, a jump of 27.6pc from a year ago.
Now the new multi-storey ‘super-piggeries’, built to increase efficiency and improve disease control by shifting production away from less backward work, have become a challenge. They live in large numbers of breeding seeds and fans, but they are also a good resource for the disease once it contaminates the system. If one farm gets infected, the production loss is large compared to that of a small family work.
Hogs on exchange
Ironically, the first pig breeding trade fund (ETF) in China came on the Shenzhen stock exchange last Friday. Trading as a CSI Penghua Fund Management livestock breeding ETF, this is the first of three linked to the country’s pig sector, an investment that thrives on the back of high domestic prices.
So what will be the impact of the latest revolution on Chinese life-hate demand? Much of the large increase in imports, particularly corn, and to a lesser extent wheat, has been made in the last 12 months. But this is not all about getting past the country’s pig herd. In fact, it’s more about historically poor governance on the nation’s agenda.
Back in early 2016, the government made a major policy change. They decided to stop subsidizing domestic corn production by allowing prices to be set by the market while at the same time selling the strategic stocks. But the government seems to have taken its toll. Domestic demand was growing, but production was on the rise. Nutritional investments from burden in 2015 tightened in 2018. Beijing had to replenish the stock store with slow import growth.
Enter Donald Trump and the China-US trade war, which halted the campaign. ASF and then COVID-19 were initiated together to further streamline the process of rebuilding the investments.
Despite the latest ASF uprising, the low investment stocks will continue to lead China’s import demand for corn and wheat in the short term. Soybeans may be the main product at risk of falling under the control of ASF, with the pig industry being the most in demand for soybean feed. With the U.S. export campaign almost underway, this is likely to manifest itself in a delay of Brazilian exports for the 2020-21 marketing year balance.